Wednesday, November 26, 2008

The 110th Congress: The Block and Blame Game

Being blocked by 54 filibusters aimed mostly against conservative judicial appointments by George W. Bush, in 2005 Republican majority leaders made a pitch to abolish the filibuster.

www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/05/10/filibuster_ban_gets_white_house_nudge/

Should a strong Democratic majority -- 58, assuming the still contested Minnesota and Georgia seats don't turn blue -- attempt to do the same?

Like Rodney Dangerfield, this Congress doesn't get much respect. Americans rate it slightly above sludge, but below George Bush, the least admired president in the history of polling.

Who gets the blame for the so-called "Do Nothing Congress?"

Well, as the chart from Secretary of the Senate, shows from January 4, 2007 through November 25, 2008, 138 cloture motions have been filed. That's 34 more than the record-setting chart at the right shows.

Majority rule has essentially been repealed by the F-word Congress. Without the super-majority of sixty votes to end the filibusters, the accomplishments of the 110th Congress were limited (GI-Bill, Children's Health Care and minimum wage as riders as notable exceptions to Progressives; continued stimulus packages to all Americans a victory in the conservative column). The 'Do Nothingness' was reinforced by over 131 veto threats by President Bush (who never issued a veto when Republican majority Congresses ran up record deficits on Capitol Hill).

So the question for the new 111th Congress coming in January, should it move to remove the filibuster? Or is the procedure a needed part of the Cup and Saucer dance that is currently like a slow Washington waltz?

Here is a look at how that 111th Congress breaks down, statistically.

www.cqpolitics.com/cq-assets/cqmultimedia/pdfs/NM-guide-statistics.pdf

Thanksgiving -- a political cultural event


This year marks the 61st anniversary of the National Thanksgiving Turkey presentation. Though live Thanksgiving turkeys have been presented intermittently to presidents since the Lincoln administration, the current ceremony dates to 1947, when the first National Thanksgiving Turkey was presented to President Harry Truman.

So while they say not to talk about religion or politics around the Thanksgiving Day table, here is the Political Warrior cornucopia of political/historical/religious/culture info to impress your guest this Turkey Day.

Starting with the 'Chief Turkey' follow this link to the White House website, where you can find film of President George W. Bush pardon "Pumpkin & Pecan" the two birds that were saved by the president's signature Wednesday.

www.whitehouse.gov/holiday/thanksgiving/2008/

Next this short film from the History Channel has much on our Poltical Culture as linked with Thanksgiving -- watch for how FDR wanted to move up Thanksgiving to spur on the economy and the Christmas shopping season. "Franksgiving?"

Did you know that the author of "Mary Had a Little Lamb" was behind the US making Thanksgiving a national holiday, that Lincoln was the president who initiated this, that there is no proof that turkey was actually eaten on the first Thanksgiving. So many nice tidbits in this video and more of the story here.

And finally, from CBS 2 School the two have their take on the POLs that best play the role of the staples of today's truly American holiday table.

VIDEO: Politics And Thanksgiving

Have a great Thanksgiving. I am thankful for you reading and blogging!

Monday, November 24, 2008

Some 'sweet' influences on Daylight Savings Rider

(Before we all let stores squeeze Thanksgiving and rush into a challenging Christmas shopping season, let's peak back at Halloween one more time and re-visit influences on lawmaking on Capitol Hill. This post origninally posted on Political Warrior in Nov. 2007)

Last year's Trick-or-Treating was different. Because Congress in 2007 moved Daylight Savings time back to the first Saturday in Novemeber, my son went to a record number of doors in the Sunlight. (In 2008, I think he set a new record)

"I got lots of candy more than ever before,'' said then nine-year-old Patrick. "It should have been night, because night is cooler going trick-or-treating, and the houses are more lit up. But I probably wouldn't have got as much candy."

Hmm. Despite the fact that Patrick did get tooth paste at one house, the load of his loot may have been due to influences on Capitol Hill. The New York Times City Room Blog says the candy lobby gave an influential push for a rider to the 2005 Engergy Policy Act.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_Act_of_2005
The NYT story on the influences on federal lawmakers to shed more light on Halloween night (child safety was also a legitimate concern) is linked here:

More evidence of your government at work. Just for post-Halloween fun, blog any legislation ideas you have to make Halloween more fun.

Remember many District 204 schools have legislated policy banning all of the Halloween hoopla.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Moore: CEOs want socialism for themselves




This post is partly for my sociology class, which just finished watching "Roger & Me." Twenty years after taking General Motors greed to task in his debut documentary, filmaker Michael Moore spoke with anger on Larry King Live Wednesday -- saying the American Auto industry is same as it ever was. Maybe only now it is apparent that that is not good for the country, or the planet.

"They don't believe in free enterprise or free market. They want socialism for themselves. They want a handout and a net for themselves. To hell with everybody else, but give it to them. And I think, really, what we're seeing now — with them, with the banks — we're seeing the end of capitalism, the end of capitalism as we know it ..." – Michael Moore


The New Trough (VIDEO)
Harry Reid "can't get the votes to bail out the auto companies because that's going to help a lot of blue-collar people – people that don't have a voice, who don't have lobbyists fighting for them on Capitol Hill ..."


'What Roosevelt Did' (VIDEO)
"President-elect Obama has to say to them, 'yes, we're going to use this money to save these jobs but we're not going to build these gas-guzzling, unsafe vehicles any longer.' ... they are to build mass transit, they are to build hybrid cars ..."


'Fire the Management' (VIDEO)
"... they've not only hurt themselves, they've helped to provide some of the fodder for this economic collapse that we're facing ..."



Obama Senate Replacement: Will Blago pick be for governing or politics?


(CBS2 School)

HELP WANTED:

Description:U.S. Senate seeks an exceptional individual to join the nation’s leadership team. Aligned to our Illinois State Constitution succession planning process, Governor Blagojevich is focusing his efforts to identify a dynamic leader to continue the nation’s vision for success. This leadership opportunity is available due to a recent resignation (for a very good reason.)

Job Summary: The junior U.S. Senator from Illinois is a full-time, 12-month representative assignment. The selected individual will work closely with the senior U.S. Senator from Illinois (Dick Durbin) during the next two years and will share the responsibility for the representation of the state in the U.S. Senate. This individual will also share the responsibility for congressional oversight of the executive branch. They should also plan on spending the next two years building statewide political alliances and a campaign war chest in seeking election for a 6-year-term in 2010.

Qualifications: Qualified applicants must be a U.S. Citizen for at least 9 years, 30 years old, and reside in the State of Illinois. Applicants must demonstrate a history of working effectively with diverse constitutencies; the ability to promote a positive climate for the Democratic Party; skill at organizing personnel to manage a Senate office, and a track record of formulating and of achieving short and long-range legislative goals. The person selected must also remove their name from consideration as a 2010 Illinois gubernatorial candidate.

Working Conditions: A transition plan will be developed and the identified candidate will be sworn in on January 6, 2009. The salary for this position will be $169,300 and include a comprehensive benefits package.

Application Procedure: Interested candidates should submit an application and mail/attach a letter of interest, résumé, copies of transcripts and three letters of reference to: Governor Rod Blagojevich, James R. Thompson Center?100 W. Randolph, Chicago, IL 60601

P.S. Republicans need not apply.

VIDEO: The Open Senate Seat
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DemConWatch.com reported this last week:

As of right now it looks like it may be either Tammy Duckworth or Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. Congressman Jackson isn't hiding his desire to take over for Obama in the Senate. Tammy Duckworth hasn't sent out any releases to my knowledge but she has said she's interested in the job.

Duckworth, now the Illinois Veterans Affairs director, has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Obama in the U.S. Senate or as Veterans Affairs secretary in an Obama administration.

She accompanied Obama as the Illinois senator marked Veterans Day by placing a wreath at the bronze soldiers memorial between the Field Museum and Soldier Field in Chicago.

Duckworth, then a pilot with the Illinois Army National Guard, lost both her legs in Iraq in 2004 when her Black Hawk helicopter was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade.

She has said she would be interested in either the Senate seat or a post in Obama’s administration.

“I would be honored to be able to do that on a national level,” Duckworth told The Associated Press recently about the prospect of helping veterans. - Army Times

The F-word Congress: Filibuster kills Auto bailout vote


CQ politics reports on the one thing the 110th Congress has done well: Filibuster. Many of the auto workers, leaving their plant in Warren, Mich. above, may have another F-word for their Washington lawmakers....and the CEO's of their companies, who each flew in separate private company jets to Capitol to testify in committees on Tuesday.

"Rust Belt senators worked late Wednesday on a last-gasp compromise after Republicans blocked efforts to carve an additional $25 billion for the auto industry out of the $700 billion financial bailout package.

Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev., voiced little hope that the effort would succeed and did not promise that the Senate would consider the legislation being negotiated by Sens. Carl Levin , D-Mich., George V. Voinovich , R-Ohio, and Christopher S. Bond , R-Mo.

It remained unclear whether there would be 60 votes for the compromise and whether House leaders would embrace it.

With senators anxious to leave town Thursday after a possible vote on extending jobless benefits, action on auto industry assistance this week remained unlikely but not out of the question.

Republicans and the Bush administration oppose aiding the auto industry from the financial bailout fund (PL 110-343), preferring to alter an existing auto loan program at the Department of Energy to let automakers access it immediately. Minority Whip Jon Kyl , R-Ariz., blocked Reid’s attempt to move an auto loan bill (S 3689) on Wednesday.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Will Quacks Bailout Auto Industry?

In American politics, a “lame duck” is any politician leaving office as a successor awaits.

The term is typically applied to presidents who will be leaving the White House but are awaiting the inauguration date of January 20th to turn power over to their successor. Like a duck wounded by a hunter, this president lies powerless as those with power approach.

This week, the Congress begins a lame duck session as at least 56 current members will be leaving as of January 6th, 2009. But with S.O.S. calls coming daily from the struggling U.S. auto industry, much is being asked from this lame duck Congress.

Arguing that hundreds of thousands of American manufacturing jobs could be put at risk with no action, Democratic congressional leaders have set the goal of getting at least $25 billion of the $700 billion bailout package set aside for the Big 3 of Detroit. These leaders say the auto industry can not wait until January 20th for action.

The Bush Administration has not rejected the bailout proposal, but has hinted that he would favor using money that had been set aside for the 2007 Energy Bill for any bailout of the auto industry.

Students of government should keep their eyes open for some interesting lame duck legislative intrigue in the coming days with classic legislative lingo resting at the center of this D.C. drama.

Filibuster: A filibuster is a weapon used in the Senate by the minority side (currently Republicans) to permanently delay a bill with permanent debate. It can successfully kill a bill unless 60 Senators vote to limit debate with “cloture.”

Unlike the next Congress, this lame duck Congress has a very narrowly divided Senate where Republicans might very well resort to using endless filibusters to prevent their chamber from passing any bailout.

VETO: If a bailout bill manages to survive a Senate filibuster, President Bush might decide to kill the bill with his Veto power. To pass a bill that has been vetoed, two-thirds of the House and the Senate must then vote to approve the bill. This is not too likely with the narrow Democratic majorities in the 110th Congress.

Pocket Veto: If Congress passes a bill with less than 10 days left in its session, President Bush can simply choose not to sign this legislation into law. In this case, the law is automatically rejected with this “pocket veto.”

111th Congress: The field changes on January 6th with the swearing in of the new 11th Congress. With a more powerful Democratic majority in both chambers, the 111th Congress could turn up the heat on President Bush before his departure on January 20th.

Inauguration: On January 20th, President Obama comes to town with a whole lot of power to replace the lame duck president. He will certainly be more willing to work with the Democratic Congress, but many question what the U.S. auto industry will look like after weeks of lame ducks.

(CBS2School)

VIDEO: The Lame Duck Congress

Executive Order Eraser?

Traditionally the first official act a new president does right after being sworn in is to sign an executive order.

CNN has a good article, here, discussing the controversial decisions that Obama may change from the Bush administration. The video is also a good discussion.

If you want to see all executive orders since 1937, click here. Two of the more famous executive orders are Truman's one integrating the military and Clinton's "Don't ask don't tell."

Monday, November 17, 2008

And then there were two: Indecision 2008

Incumbent Ted Stevens , the Senate’s longest-serving Republican conceded Wednesday that he lost his re-election to Democrat Mark Begich.
“Given the number of ballots that remain to be counted, it is apparent the election has been decided and Mayor Begich has been elected,” Stevens said in a statement Wednesday afternoon.


Begich, mayor of Anchorage, led Stevens by 3,724 votes with an estimated 2,500 votes outstanding as of late Tuesday. Begich received 150,728 votes, or 47.76 percent, versus 147,004 votes, or 46.58 percent for Stevens, out of 307,587 votes recorded.


Long before Stevens issued his statement, Begich had claimed victory and the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, had said he was resigned to losing that seat.


Still, despite the Alaska decision, there remains "Indecision 2008" in two more Senate races. Also, governors in Illinois and Deleware are still to name replacements for the seats vacated by President-elect Obama and VP-elect Biden.


Jon Stewart won this bet with a friend with his take on the Georgia recount. He also recapped the situation in Alaska and the still developing re-count in Minnesota. If the Democrats were to carry both Minnesota and Georgia's Senate contests, they would have (when combined with 2 independents) the 60-vote filibuster-proof majority.



In all seriousness, there are some changes within the Democratic congressional leadership.
House Democrats on Thursday handed Henry A. Waxman of California the gavel of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee, toppling veteran Chairman John D. Dingell of Michigan.
The 137-122 Democratic Caucus vote was viewed as a referendum on the party’s future approach to energy and climate policy, as well as a test of the seniority system the party has long used to select committee chairmen and ranking members.
The article gives good insight to the inner-workings of Congressional leadership that often, but not always, defers to senority. The Energy and Commerce Committee may have even more importance given the current auto industry crisis.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Unified States of America


The big winner in last Tuesday’s election was unified government. Between the years 1900 – 1952 unified governed occurred 85% of the time. Since, however, unified government has occurred much less frequently. The trend toward divided government has been an important feature of our contemporary government.

Such trends appear over.

Divided government occurs when the majority party in Congress differs from the party of the President. In recent years this has meant a Democratic majority in charge of the legislative branch and a Republican George Bush as President.

Unified government occurs when the majority party in Congress is the same as the party of the President. Since 1952, we have experienced unified government only about one third of the time. As political scientist-in-chief David Mayhew has written, “Divided we Govern.”

One would expect that divided government produces gridlock and unified government yields legislative productivity. Yet the facts may be counter intuitive. Mayhew and others have argued that significant legislation is no more likely in a unified government. Periods of divided government may encourage greater deliberation and subsequent bipartisan success.

Unified government, however, often finds itself trapped and snared by incestuous bickering. Agenda setting rarely has one master. The White House and Congress often have different constituent groups to please. The push and pull of the legislative process may butt up against Obama and his minions. Obama won the election after all by appealing to his moderate side. Ramming a liberal agenda through Congress may make for a short honeymoon.

The last time we had an extended unified government, all the way back to the 1960s, significant reform legislation was passed. This included advancements in civil rights, education and health care. In G. Calvin Mackenzie and Robert Weisbrot’s latest book The Liberal Hour they argue:

“The institutions of national politics and bureaucrats who inhabited them . . . produced social and economic changes that have become the deep and enduring legacy of the 1960s.”

Unified government need not to be feared. Years ago Woodrow Wilson wrote – “It is only once in a generation that a people can be lifted above the material things. That is why conservative government is in the saddle two thirds of the time.”

Has our time arrived?

Barack Obama was not the only winner in the electoral victory. Unified government is back and looking stronger than ever. The recent trend toward divided government was soundly defeated. Only time will tell what the consequences will be of taking that last trend out of town.
(From CBS2School)

VIDEO: Unified Government

Saturday, November 15, 2008

A 'Plum Book' of government jobs for Obama to fill

While the nation's unemployment rate rises to a 14-year high, there is someone who is hiring -- President-elect Obama. But just how many jobs does he have to fill?

We know already that with more than 1.8 million civilian employees, excluding the Postal Service, the Federal Government is the Nation’s largest employer. According to the 'Plum Book' -- a 209-page paperback position inventory, the new Obama administration will be looking to replace about 8,000 positions from the Bush administration.

Hope he has a good human resources director, like Mrs. Wolak.

Ambassadors are one job covered in our textbook -- this page will show you what the Book says about those jobs. Jobs in the EOP (Executive Office of the President) can be found on this page. Go here for the entire cabinet. Go here for the legend. Finally, you can read an article by the Washington Post on the 'Plum Book' here.

Fascinating stuff, your bureaucracy at work. Remember, Democrats and Republicans administrations alike, the Federal Government is always hiring every four years.

A career guide to industries in the Federal Government can be found here, at the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

www.bls.gov/oco/cg/cgs041.htm

Can Uprising Be Sustained?


The numbers coming in are confirming it, young people finally collectively made their voices heard as voting members of "We the People." Liberal filmaker Michael Moore calls it the "Slacker Uprising." I call it an example of democracy working, when people put their democracy to work.

MSNBC reports:

Young Americans can finally shake off their reputation for civic apathy. Young people appear to have voted in higher numbers than ever before, preliminary reports show. And analysts say this demographic’s heavy tilt toward Barack Obama was a determining factor in his historic victory.

An estimated 24 million Americans ages 18 to 29 voted in this election, an increase in youth turnout by at least 2.2 million over 2004, reports CIRCLE, a non-partisan organization that promotes research on the political engagement of young Americans. That puts youth turnout somewhere between 49.3 and 54.5 percent, meaning 19 percent more young people voted this year than in 2004, estimates John Della Volpe, the director of polling for the Harvard Institute of Politics. And that’s a conservative estimate, Della Volpe says.

“It looks like the highest turnout among young people we’ve ever had,” says Della Volpe, adding that 12 percent more Americans in the overall electorate voted. The youth share of the vote also rose to 18 percent — a one-percent increase over the last three presidential elections.

//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27562023/

Despite being outnumbered by the "Gray Panthers" (65+) voters aged 18-29 made up 18% of the total voting population, while to just 16% for senior citizens.

Blog here and be proud of your generation....The question is will it last?

___________________

Overall, higher, but not record turnout

Many expected an amazingly high voter turnout, but as CNN's head pollster and National Journal columist Bill Schnieder reports, record voting numbers never really materialized.

"Just over 208 million American citizens were eligible to vote this year. Edison Media Research estimates that more than 130 million people voted for president, either in person or by mail. That's 62.6 percent of all eligible voters.

That is 2 points higher than the 60.6 percent who turned out four years ago, according to a report by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate. The 2008 election continued a steady trend of higher voter turnout since 1996 (51.4 percent in 1996; 54.2 percent in 2000). But the 2008 figure is not exactly a quantum leap. In fact, it's slightly lower than the 64 percent of eligible voters who turned out in 1964 and the 67 percent in 1960."

Schnieder goes on to break down the numbers, in which he sort of downplays the young vote. This is the old adage, "Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics." While the percentage turnout of 18-29 year olds went up from 17-18%, what Schnieder sees that as a minimal increase, he does not take into consideration the rage of age 18-29 is the smallest category calculated and that there are less people living in that category than any of the others. It is also the first time in electoral history (since exit polls have been calculated) that the youngest category of voters turned out at a higher rate than their more populous groug of grandparents and their Gray Panther friends.

www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pl_20081112_6998.php

_______________________

Activist Michael Moore's film 'Slacker Uprising' cronicles a 42-day, 62-city tour in 2004 designed to get the young vote out in what he called his attempt to remove George W. Bush from office.

Moore writes:

My goal was to help turn out a record number of young voters and others who had never voted before. (That part was a success. Young adults voted in greater numbers than in any election since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote. And the youth vote was the only age group that John Kerry won.)

What I encountered during the tour and the filming was both inspiring and frightening, so I thought, hey, this might make for a funny and enlightening movie! Each night, thousands would show up to volunteer in the Slacker Army against Bush. This drove local Republicans nuts. In one state they tried to have me arrested. At two colleges, rich donors offered to donate more money to the college if they would ban me from campus. Nearly a half-dozen universities kept the Slacker Uprising tour off their campuses. But there was no stopping this movement. By the time we got to Florida, 16,000 people a night were showing up.

It was clear that young people were the ones who were going to save the day -- just as they are (now known, clearly were) in this year's election.

Michael Moore is a lightening rod. But love him, or hate him. Agree or disagree with him, this is a film anyone who studies government and politics should see. You can download the film for free here.

It seems to me a movement can not just be against something or someone as it was in 2004. It has to be FOR something, or someone as it was this time.

/slackeruprising.com/

Electoral Map Changed, Officially

A look at the 2008 Electoral Map, which last Friday included a 1 district call for Barack Obama in Nebraska (the first time since 1968 that the Cornhusker State did not also go the way of winner-take-all) indicates that what political scientists call a critical election occurred this year.

Aren't all elections, critical? But for the sake political science discussion a critical election or a realigning election occures when the coaltions supporting the parties become disrupted and voters realign their allegiances, with a new party becoming the hegemonic party for decades at the presidency and congressional levels.

There’s a long line of research on this, but the most compelling account of partisan realigment is found in the notion of a “critical election.” In an election contest whereby the political system is facing a fundamental national crisis of catastrophic proportions, voters choose the party out of power and elevate a new, enduring partisan coalition at the levels of the presidency and Congress. The elections of 1860 and 1932 are the key examples. The Republican Party was the dominant party in American politics following Abraham Lincoln’s election at the moment of national crisis precipitating the Civil War; and in 1932, Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected in a New Deal realignment that emerged out of the calamity of the Great Depression.

The Wikipedia page on realignments (which features an excellent review of the scholarship) singles out 1932 as classic case of partisan realigment:

Of all the realigning elections, this one musters the most agreement from political scientists and historians; it is the archetypal realigning election. FDR’s admirers have argued that New Deal policies, developed in response to the crash of 1929 and the miseries of the Great Depression under Herbert Hoover, represented an entirely new phenomenon in American politics.

With the highest young voter turnout in history (numbers, wise) that went big for Obama; With a democratic 50 state strategy expanding the blue on the electoral map; a with the possibility of a New New Deal (Time magazine cover story) ushering in what conservatives claim will be a more soicalistic America, the 2008 could very well go down in history as more than a Change Election. It would qualify as a Critical, or Realigning election.


_______________________

And the Winner Is.....

Our Electoral Pool Champ is Jim Z. who missed the electoral count by just one vote, 364-174. Jim also called Obama's final popular vote pretty darn close, 54%. Way to go Jim! We'll award you your major award next week.

At this point, the final Obama popular vote is 53%-46% (CNN). According to fivethirtyeight.com (the best prognosticator of this year's election) the Obama vitory may have more symbolic than Bill Clinton's 370 EC tally in 1992, because of the geographic color change of the electoral map. Also, an 18% third-party popular vote pull of Ross Perot kept Clinton's victory as a plurality of the electoral, not a majority.

//www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/obama-wins-omaha-ne-electoral-vote.html


Sunday, November 2, 2008

Questions may be already being answered

Electoral-vote.com blog had some great nuggets on some of the major questions to be answered by Tuesday's election day.

The first deals with, well, early election days. With a record number of early voters in 31 states having already cast their ballots, questions are raised about who does early voting favor and how might the large number of early voters throw off tradition exit polls on Tuesday night:

"One problem with all this campaigning is that for many voters it is too late. According to the Early Voting Information Center early voting is going to break all records. For example, in North Carolina, 42% of all Democrats, 35% of all Republicans, and 30% of all independents have already voted. In Florida the numbers are 22%, 15%, and 20%, respectively."

CNN also has a story on early voting, with a map to all the early voting states and its results.

One complication caused by early voting is that the exit polls Tuesday will sample only 60-70% of the electorate and it may well be a biased sample given the fact that so many Democrats have voted early so Tuesday voters may be disproportionately Republicans.

Questions the election will answer

The LA Times has a story about four questions this election will answer:

  1. Is America prepared to elect a black President?
  2. Is the old red-blue culture war still going on?
  3. Do Americans want a bigger government or a smaller government?
  4. Has the demographic composition of the electorate fundamentally changed?

To this list, one might add:

  1. Have the Republicans been changed from a national party to a regional party?
  2. Has public financing of campaigns gone the way of the dodo?
  3. Has the political power of the evangelicals waned?

Study shows virtually no evidence of voter fraud

The Republicans have been talking a lot about voter fraud, but yet another study shows that it barely exists. Politico has a story in which a reporter pressed Ronald Michaelson, a veteran election administrator who is now working for the McCain campaign, to cite a single documented case of voter fraud that resulted from a phony registration and he could not come up with even one example. When asked, another McCain official, Ben Porritt, came up with 13 articles. However, 11 of these did not involve registration fraud at all and only one involved a noncitizen voting. While there is no doubt that low-paid workers for ACORN and other groups have turned in false registrations to ACORN (to earn a bit more), the organization itself selects out the clearly bogus ones and puts these in a separate envelope before turning them in (as required by law). This is how the bogus registrations get in the news. However, documented cases of bogus registrations actually leading to illegal voting are virtually nonexistent as the fraud being committed is the low-paid workers defrauding ACORN itself of a bit of money, not actual voting fraud.

Let's have an Electoral College Pool

The Nov. 2 projection of http://www.electoral-vote.com/

predicts Obama will win the elctoral vote 353-185. This would make mandate-like numbers. The McCain camp says polls are tightening in battleground states. What do you think the electoral results will be on Tuesday. Blog your final projection, with one best bet of a battleground state. Also include your prediction of the overal popular vote. The closest to the final outcome in our pool will win a major award.



Voter Suspression vs. Voter Fraud

Voter Supression vs. Voter Fraud. They are both among the seven problems that Time Magazine outlines in the problems that may face the projected record setting number of voters that will show up to vote on Tuesday. Both the Democratic and Republican National Committees have teams of lawyers on retainer to fight to protect "democracy" as John McCain recently said.

A problem is how do we do that. While it is not voter registration procedures that have kept American voting at a lower rate than most industrial democracies over recent history, the case can be made that we do make it more difficult on our citizens than other countries. The top two problems, relating directly to Voter Supression (the GOP playbook) and Voter Fraud (a Democratic necessary evil) was highlighted in Time last week:

The Database Dilema

"Joe the plumber" is not registered to vote. Or at least he is not registered under his own name. The man known to his mother as Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, who has become a feature of John McCain's stump speech, is inscribed in Ohio's Lucas County registration records as "Worzelbacher," a problem of penmanship more than anything else. "You can't read his signature to tell if it is an o or a u," explains Linda Howe, the local elections director.

Such mistakes riddle the nation's voting rolls, but they did not matter much before computers digitized records. The misspelled Joes of America still got their ballots. But after the voting debacle in 2000, Congress required each state to create a single voter database, which could then be matched with other data, such as driver's licenses, to detect false registrations, dead people and those who have moved or become "inactive." In the marble halls of Congress, this sounded like a great idea — solve old problems with new technology. But in the hands of sometimes inept or partisan state officials, the database matches have become a practical nightmare that experts fear could disenfranchise thousands.

In Wisconsin, an August check of a new voter-registration database against other state records turned up a 22% match-failure rate. Around the time four of the six former judges who oversee state elections could not be matched with state driver's license data, the board decided to suspend any database purges of new registrants. But database-matching continues elsewhere. In Florida, nearly 9,000 new registrants have been flagged through the state's "No Match, No Vote" law. (Their votes will not be counted unless they prove their identity to a state worker in the coming weeks.) In Ohio, Republicans have repeatedly gone to court to make public a list of more than 200,000 unmatched registrations, presumably so that those voters can be challenged at the polls, even though most of them, like Joe, are probably legit. "It's disenfranchisement by typo," explains Michael Waldman, executive director of the Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks voting issues.

Elsewhere the purges are peremptory. A county official in Georgia this year removed 700 people from voter lists, even though some of those people had never received so much as a parking ticket. Another Georgia voter purge, which seeks to remove illegal immigrants from the rolls, has been challenged by voting-rights groups that say legal voters have been intimidated by repeated requests to prove their citizenship. Back in Mississippi last March, an election official wrongly purged 10,000 people from the voting rolls — including a Republican congressional candidate — while using her home computer. (The names were restored before the primary.)

With just days until the election, the scale of the database-purge problem is unknown. Millions have been stripped from voter rolls in key states, but the legitimacy of those eliminations remains unclear. The sheer volume of state voter checks against the federal Social Security Administration database, however, has raised concerns. Six states that are heavily using the federal database were recently warned by Social Security commissioner Michael Astrue about the danger of improperly blocking legitimate voters. "It is absolutely essential that people entitled to register to vote are allowed to do so," he said in October.

"Mickey Mouse" Registrations and Polling Place Challenges

Thanks to a few bad apples, ACORN is no longer just an oak-tree nut. McCain blames the group for "maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history." Members of Congress have demanded investigations. The fbi is asking questions. Republican protesters have started crashing political events in squirrel costumes.

Yet the problem of registration fraud is age-old. For decades, both parties and many other groups have paid people to go out and register new voters. In the case of acorn, a community group that represents low-income and minority communities, this led to a massive registration drive this year, which signed up 1.3 million new people, mostly in swing states. The problem is that a small fraction of those new voters don't exist. That's because the 13,000 part-time workers conducting the acorn registration drive were paid on a quota system, providing them a clear incentive to fabricate registrations. Across the country, registrars have flagged thousands of acorn forms as suspect. In Florida, "Mickey Mouse" tried to register with an application stamped with the acorn logo. The starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys signed up to vote in Nevada. But there's a difference between registration fraud and voter fraud; the latter has not been documented on any significant scale in decades. Phony registrations are difficult to translate into fraudulent votes. Under federal law, new registrants still have to provide election officials with identification before casting their first ballot. Unless Mickey Mouse has an ID, the chance that he'll vote is slim.

Democrats complain that trumped-up charges of voting fraud could scare people from the polls. On the other hand, the acorn effect makes elections suspect — and that's bad for everyone. Republicans in several key swing states have argued that the false registrations make it necessary to monitor polls and challenge suspect voters. If that happens on a grand scale, the voting process could become more like running a gauntlet than exercising a right, with polling-place delays and confrontations that could scare people off or just lead them to conclude it's not worth the time.

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So what is the bigger problem, Voter Supression or Voter Fraud? Blog here. And do you think it threatens Tuesday's vote?

Executive Branch & the Bureaucracy Study Guide

Executive Branch & the Bureaucracy -- Patterson, Chapters 13/14

Roles of the president -- Chief Diplomat, Chief Legislator, Commander-in-Chief, etc.
Presidential Leadership Style -- pyramid, circular, ad hoc
Presidential Veto Power -- Line Item Veto
Stewardship Theory, Whig (or Strict Constructionalist) Theory
President's role in foreign policy v. domestic policy
Two presidencies thesis
Bully Pulpit
Coattails
War Powers Act
Executive Agreements
President's power to influence legislation
Impeachment procedures
Executive power in a presidential system vs. a parlimentary system
Executive office of the President "umbrella-like"
Imperial Presidency
Constitutional (Formal) Requirements
Informal Requirements
Formal (Expressed) Powers of the Presidency
Informal powers of the Presidency
Power of Prez. in times of crisis
Presidential electoral systems -- primaries, electoral college
Cabinet -- selection process and roles
presidential approval ratings -- first term vs. second term
Lame Duck
prez. powers granted without consent of Congress
Executive Privilege
Signing Statements
Bureaucracy -- cabinet departments, regulatory agencies, independent agencies
Managing the bureaucracy --patronage, executive leadership, merit
Bureaucratic accountability
Public opinion on bureaucracy
ID -- president's current: Chief of Staff, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General
FRQ -- Public Approval of President's over time