Is never-wrong pundit stupid this time?

President Clinton advisor James Carville is credited with the political catch phrase, "It's the Economy, Stupid." Nothing else matters, but the state of the economy. If that's true, then one of the strongest predictors of presidential electoral success might be at risk in 2012. But if the formula is right, President Obama may still be the Pick to Click.

As US News and World Report blog Washington Whispers reports:

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.


“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.....

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”


In 2005, Lichtman also hit a home run when he said that the political stage was looking so bad for Republicans that Democrats could pick a name out of the phone book and win in 2008, the year a little known first-term senator became the first African-American to win the presidency.




Now Lichtman’s predicting a repeat performance by Obama.



Below are each of the keys and how it falls for Obama.

1.Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. Says Lichtman, “Even back in January 2010 when I first released my predictions, I was already counting on a significant loss.” Obama loses this key.

2.Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Says Lichtman on Obama’s unchallenged status, “I never thought there would be any serious contest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary.” Obama wins this key.

3.Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Easy win here for Obama.

4.Third Party: There is no significant third party challenge. Obama wins this point.

5.Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Here Lichtman declares an “undecided.”

6.Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Says Lichtman, “I discounted long term economy against Obama. Clearly we are in a recession.” Obama loses this key. [Read: Seven Ways Obama Can Gain Credibility on Jobs.]

7.Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. “There have been major policy changes in this administration. We’ve seen the biggest stimulus in history and an complete overhaul of the healthcare system so I gave him policy change,” says the scholar. Another win for Obama.

8.Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Says Lichtman, “There wasn’t any social unrest when I made my predictions for 2012 and there still isn’t.” Obama wins a fifth key here.

9.Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. “This administration has been squeaky clean. There’s nothing on scandal,” says Lichtman. Another Obama win.

10.Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any major failure that resembles something like the Bay of Pigs and don’t foresee anything.” Obama wins again.

11.Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. “Since Osama bin Laden was found and killed, I think Obama has achieved military success.” Obama wins his eighth key.

12.Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Explains Lichtman, “I did not give President Obama the incumbent charisma key. I counted it against him. He’s really led from behind. He didn’t really take the lead in the healthcare debate, he didn’t use his speaking ability to move the American people during the recession. He’s lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election.” Obama loses this key. [See political cartoons about President Obama.]

13.Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Says Lichtman, “We haven’t seen any candidate in the GOP who meets this criteria and probably won’t.” Obama wins, bringing his total to nine keys, three more than needed to win reelection.

Just to be sure, the President laid out his jobs plan before a rare mid-year Joint Session of Congress address on Thursday night, blog here to share what you like/disliked about what you heard.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/08/30/never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012?s_cid=rss:washington-whispers:never-wrong-pundit-picks-obama-to-win-in-2012

The Revolution Will NOT Be Televised

When he ran in 2008 and had the most Facebook friends of any GOP presidential candidate, followers called it, "The Ron Paul Revoultion." Apparently, in 2012, as Gil Scott-Heron wrote and sung in protest in 1970, the 2012 version of the Ron Paul Revolution will not be televised....at least as much as other candidate competitors.

The FAIR (Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting) blog reports:

Washington Post ombud Patrick Pexton dedicated his column this weekend (8/29/11) to addressing complaints about the skimpy coverage of Republican presidential contender Ron Paul. It's hard to argue with the numbers he's gathered:


Still, the Post’s coverage of Paul looks thin compared with its stories on Bachmann. In the past six months, the Post has published online or in print 34 staff-written stories plus 12 wire service stories on Bachmann, who has served not even five years in the House, and that doesn't count the blog posts about her on the Fix or Glenn Kessler's Fact Checker pieces. The Post published 19 staff-written stories on former House speaker Newt Gingrich in that time, plus one wire story and many blog posts. On Paul, a congressman for more than 20 years, who was No. 2 in fundraising after Romney in the last report, the Post has published just three full stories, a couple more that had large sections on him along with other candidates, two wire stories and the Fix blog posts.

Bachmann has a 46-5 advantage over Paul--that's pretty stunning (and it doesn't even count Bachmann's appearances in the Fact Checker column, which is a place you're likely to read about her). A Post editor assures that more coverage of Paul is forthcoming, and that Gingrich got more coverage because his "campaign imploded when most of his senior staff walked out in June." You don't normally hear journalists talking about the need to thoroughly cover campaigns that are in complete disarray.

http://www.fair.org/blog/2011/08/29/ron-paul-in-the-post-by-the-numbers/

Madison v. Screech: Which T-Shirt Would They Wear?

(This is a re-run Classic Poltical Warrior Post)


James Madison might not ever imagined Bayside High School, but he described it perfectly when he wrote Federalist No. 10.

In his effort to promote the ratification of the Constitution, Madison helped write the Federalist papers to describe the theoretical underpinnings of this unique government.

Besides describing how the concept of Separation of Powers (Federalist No. 51) would work, he also spoke of how this new government would help to contain the archenemy of democracy: factions.

Madison argued that cliques are a natural part of society but were particularly detrimental in a democracy where the majority faction would naturally try to punish the minority factions. He argued that this oppressive situation was most likely to occur in smaller regions.

For instance Bayside High School-- with a student population of 10 -- had a majority faction led by Zac and the gang who ran the school. They led the football team. They ran the school newspaper. They even dictated the policies of their principal Mr. Belding...never considering the impact on the oppressed minority--the Geeks.

A large republic is like a large high school. No one faction can ever dominate. In a large republic, multiple factions have to unite behind common interests to enact public policy.

For instance, in order to win the electoral votes in a state like Florida, candidates vie to win support from the elderly, from Cuban-Americans, from African-Americans, and from the NASCAR crowd. Thus, candidates must tailor their message to unite groups that might have widely different interests.

So, when you were asked to read Federalist No. 10, you should have been sure to also watch a re-run of Saved by the Bell to gain fuller appreciation of the system that Madison was trying to prevent.

Saved by the Bell WVHS style

While the size of Waubonsie Valley, Madison would maintain, has kept any one faction from succeeding in a power grab, several sub-groups of Warrior seniors have tried separated themselves from the rest of the student body. No less than four "Senior" T-shirts have been worn by faction models in year's past. Senior Mean Girls, Senior Princesses. . . then there's the student council senior T, and the many AP faction statements.

Screech and his crew would be all about making the best T-shirt. It would probably make Madison simply want to scream. Linked is Federalist No. 10 for those of you want to get ahead of the bell.

http://www.thisnation.com/library/books/federalist/10.html

Globalization and Fair Trade: An Issue to Deliberate

In response to market globalization, should our democracy provide "fair trade" certification for coffee and other products?



(From Deliberating in a Democracy)
 
Globalization has resulted in stunning changes around the world. Everything—from making shoes or growing wheat to preventing terrorism and promoting democracy—is affected, because everything is connected. The speed and extent of globalization are viewed by some as wonderful and by others as threatening. In many democracies, ordinary citizens have sought ways to exercise greater influence and control over global decisions of governments and corporations, particularly in matters of trade. An example is the fair trade movement that tries to certify a fair exchange between producers in poorer countries and consumers in richer countries for a variety of products.
 
Your assignment for deliberation:
 
In response to market globalization, should our democracy provide "fair trade" certification for coffee and other products?