How many votes will 15.4 million buy in Florida?

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My guy Chris Matthews finished yesterday's show questioning the democratic principles in playing out today in Florida's GOP primary, where the LA Times reports:

"Mitt Romney's campaign had spent $6.9 million to air commercials on the state's broadcast and cable channels as of Monday morning, while Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Romney, had spent $8.5 million, according to a campaign source familiar with the ad buys. Newt Gingrich's campaign spent $1.6 million over the same time period, and Winning Our Future, the pro-Gingrich super PAC, spent $2.2 million."

It got me to thinking, in Florida's winner take all contest over 50 delegates, how much would the likely winner (Romney) be spending per vote Tuesday. Please NOTE: Restore Our Future is in NO way connected to the Romney campaign.

Well, according to Bloomberg:

"The Florida election is open only to the 4.06 million voters who were registered Republican as of Jan. 3. Polling places will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time. Most of Florida is in the Eastern time zone, and part of the state is in the Central time zone.

"Daniel A. Smith, a political scientist at the University of Florida in Gainesville, said Jan. 24 he didn’t expect turnout to match the 1.95 million voters who participated in the 2008 primary, or 51 percent of the 3.83 million registered Republican voters at the time. A similar turnout rate to 2008 would draw 2.07 million voters in this year’s primary."

Just to simplify for my math sake, we'll project 2 million Florida GOP voters casting ballots in today's primary. With that, and a surge to 40 percent in the latest polls, a reasonable accounting would project that Romney will be spending about $19.25 per primary vote in the Sunshine State.

Boy, that would buy some of those voters a nice Surf-n-Turf dinner.

One has to ask, Is it worth it? And, as Chris says in the video above, What does it mean for our Democracy?

Of the Rich, By the Rich, For the Rich????

Labour leader a Boy in a Man's Job?



(From Ken Wedding's Teaching Comparative blog
Some people think that the reason Labour hasn't reached a position of really challenging the coalition government is because of the leader.


Many thanks to Rebecca Small who teaches at Oakton High School in Virginia for pointing out the Washington Post article.

In Britain, opposition party leader struggles to find voice

For the opposition Labor Party, this should be a shining moment. Under Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, unemployment is up, budget cuts are biting British wallets and the government’s veto of a new European Union economic treaty has left the country increasingly isolated from its neighbors.

And yet rather than Cameron, it is Labor’s chief, Ed Miliband, who is confronting a profound crisis of popularity. Only 16 months after he defeated his brother to win the crown of opposition leader, Miliband’s approval ratings have sunk to record lows. Suddenly, not only his rivals on the other side of the aisle but also influential power brokers within his own party are openly questioning his leadership.

Miliband confronted his critics this week, outlining a new direction for the Labor Party in an effort to revitalize his tenure and hold on long enough to challenge Cameron in elections still three years away…

Yet the problem, analysts say, is not Labor’s message, but the messenger. Miliband, fairly or not, is being pelted with criticism…

Miliband has seemed a round short in the intellectual blood sport of British politics, played out weekly on the floor of Parliament where Cameron and Miliband set their wits against each other in terse, often-biting oral combat.

“I think the simplest way of saying it is that most people don’t see him as a prime minister,” said Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, one of Britain’s largest polling firms. “It’s to do with his manner, his lack of experience, the fact that people don’t see a toughness of character in him. People on some level think being prime minister is a man’s job, and in Ed Miliband, they see a boy.”…

Miliband’s situation looks worse when compared with Cameron’s success. In many ways, the prime minister has defied the odds, maintaining a relatively buoyant approval rating despite his relentless and, according to the polls, largely unpopular crusade against government spending…
____________________________________________________

Can our Labour leader Thursday be more popular?? Time will tell.

This is another example, like the AV Referendum, of how politics have become more personal (Americanized?) in the UK over the past election cycle.

Defeated UK AV vote explained

A couple of videos posted here to explain the UK Alternative vote referendum that went down to defeat last May. The AV referendum was a manifesto piece of the Liberal Democrats, and despite getting the Conservative coalition partner to promise to bring the referendum, the referendum had PM David Cameron and Deputy PM Nick Clegg campaigning against each other. The top video is a good, straight forward explanation piece that promoted a YES vote. The bottom mocks the negative, fear-filled NO campaign that supporters of YES said killed the reform of the first-past-the-post system.





The AV Referendum: What went wrong?

http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/the-av-referendum-what-went-wrong

AV would only have minimally effected 2010 general election results

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7708964/General-Election-2010-how-different-voting-systems-would-have-affected-the-result.html

Prime Minister David Cameron went through a Fact Check when he claimed:

“It's a system so obscure that it is only used by three countries in the whole world - Australia, Fiji and Papua New Guinea.”

David Cameron, 11 April 2011

But today’s Independent labels this claim a “myth”, and argues that we can add at least one more Western democracy to this list: Ireland. The paper writes that: “[AV] is also used to choose the Irish President, in many US mayoral elections and for the Best Picture at the Oscars.”

Leaving aside the Academy Awards and the US mayoral elections (which, like the London mayoral ballot, cannot be considered nationwide polls), the example of Ireland is intriguing.

A glance at the Irish Government’s own guide to its election system might suggest that the Independent has erred: “The President is elected by the direct vote of the people. Voting is by secret ballot on the Single Transferable Vote system.”

However this is not necessarily so. The Single Transferable Vote (STV) system is indeed used by Ireland for most of its parliamentary elections. Like AV, the system asks voters to list the candidates on the ballot paper in order of their preference.

So blog here on whether you would vote YES or NO to an alternative vote system to replace First Past the Post.

Oh Lordy, what about the children?

(From Teaching Comparative Blog)
Two issues -- one on policy and one on the British governmental institutions are in play in Westminster currently as the Conservative government looks to reform the Welfare State. There are two issues to be alert for here. The most prominent is the argument about the tolerable level of public assistance. That's mostly a policy issue for Brits. The other topic, more for non-Brits to heed, is the role of Lords in shaping policy.


Lords is often overlooked as a player in policy making. It does offer a debating forum for considering policy alternatives, and, as in this case, a force to change policy.

Welfare reform: Lords bid for benefits cap concessions

Peers will press for changes to plans for a £26,000 cap on the benefits families can receive when the measure is debated in the House of Lords later.

Church of England bishops and some Liberal Democrats will push for child benefit to be excluded from the cap - so as not to penalise large families.

Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith says there are exemptions for some disabled people and those in work…

Former Lib Dem leader Lord Ashdown has said he will vote against the plans, unless there are measures to cushion the impact on those affected…

The changes would affect England, Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland has its own social security legislation, but it is expected that what is approved at Westminster would be introduced there too.
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Citizens United: On to the Terrible Twos

The Colbert Report
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Monday was the 1st anniversary of the landmark Citizens United case that created the Super PAC. No longer the owner of his Super PAC, Steven Colbert sat down with, "The Dissenter" retired Supreme John Paul Stevens to "celebrate" the happy birthday for election's big money interests.

Jessica Levinson of the Huffinton Post sent her thoughs this way to the Birthday...Boy, No Girl....No Corporation.

Birthday note from the Huffington Post

State of the Union Bingo

Denver poltico Sarah Moss has the best State of the Union Bingo Card, you should print it out and play during the President's annual address to a joint session of Congress Tuesday night.

This year, though, there are plenty of cards to play along with including those from special interest advocacy groups:

The Center on Global Development has a card, as does The Religious Action Center of Reform Judism, and the Alliance for Excellent Education.

While the National Constitution Center is hosting a viewing party and has advertised bingo cards, those available for download appear to be 2010 editions.

So I would go with the card from Sarah Moss. If you play, and turn in your card 2 points of civic action EC. If you get a bingo, +2 more, and if you get the cabinet member that stays home Tuesday night in case Mars Attacks, +2 more.

Every State of the Union in our History

(From Ken Halla's US Government Teachers Blog)

Of course Thomas Jefferson, a notoriously poor public speaker, choose not to do the State of the Union in person and it was not until Woodrow Wilson that we had our addresses done in Congress again.  Here is every one from Washington through Obama.

US Primaries/Caucuses Explained

(From Ken Halla's US Government Teachers Blog)
This video will help you keep the nuts and bolts of the nominating process in mind while keeping the score of the GOP Road to the White House through the Primaries and Caucuses.

Remember that each state, and each national party, have their own rules of the road. Its a good example of how elections in the US are truly a concept of federalism. Also, how the primaries and caucuses have replaced party conventions in the nominating process.