First 100 days

While most of the rest of the posts this week will be review for the AP Exams, there is certainly governmental news this week. Here is a very nice series on the first 100 days of Nixon through Obama (Obama's 100th Day was Wednesday). So far the series, in the Washington Post, is up through Clinton and can all be seen here. Each is only several minutes. Above is Nixon.

And they're off

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's right-wing populist president, should face a tough reelection battle this year: inflation is running at an annual rate of 26%, while the drop in global crude oil prices threatens to bring unemployment, falling incomes and cuts in subsidies for food and fuel. The reformist camp in Iran, however, has been badly demoralized since the failure of systemic reform efforts during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) and has been further weakened by increased repression under Ahmadinjead.

This June's presidential election, therefore, is shaping up to be close. A recent article in The Economist takes a look at the race as it starts, and explains the importance of the election -- to Iranians and to the rest of the world:

http://www.economist.com/world/mideast-africa/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13331239

Obama factor reaches Iran

While U.S.-based bloggers wrote and caricatured President Barack Obama as a friend who would be dupped by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Guardian reports that today, Iran's Nuclear Technology Day, could be Ahmadinejad's swansong:

A year after becoming president in 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that the 20th day in the Persian month of Farvardin would officially be known as National Nuclear Technology day. On this day, which falls on Thursday 9 April this year, the government and people of Iran are to celebrate their country's nuclear achievements.

Ahmadinejad is not in charge of Iran's nuclear programme. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is. Nevertheless, he allows Ahmadinejad to use the occasion to inform the people of Iran about the technical progress made by Iran's nuclear programme during the past year. Last year, Ahmadinejad declared that "Iran was ready to install some 6,000 new centrifuges at the nuclear facility in the central province of Natanz".

This year, National Nuclear Technology day will have added importance for the president. While Ahmadinejad will be making his yearly speech about Iran's nuclear accomplishments, he will be well aware that from that day, only 64 days remain until the presidential elections, scheduled for 12 June.

The past year has been one of the worst for Ahmadinejad since he took office. He has suffered a number of embarrassing domestic defeats. One of them was parliament's unwillingness to pass the subsidies reduction clause in this year's budget, which called for the reduction of energy subsidies and to distribute the money instead to Iran's poor as cash handouts. Parliamentarians are worried this may further increase the level of inflation. Ahmadinejad has invested heavily in this clause. He has been promoting it since last year and parliament's resistance has damaged his credibility.

The other setback was the embarrassing dismissal of Ali Kordan, his interior minister, by parliament. Kordan was found to have had a forged doctorate degree from Oxford university. This created a large number of email and text message jokes about the former minister's credentials by offering degrees from "Aksford" and "Oxphord" university. The fact that Ahmadinejad backed Kordan until the last moment caused further blows to his standing.

Even football and its extraordinary popularity in Iran do not seem to have helped the president. During the last world cup qualifying match between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Tehran, Ahmadinejad made a surprise appearance in the stadium, 30 minutes after the start of the game. However, the fact that Iran lost 2-1 on home soil after initially leading their Saudi rivals 1-0 led to the popular belief that Ahmadinejad had 'ghadame shoor', a Persian expression that describes someone who brings bad luck.

This wasn't the first time Ahmadinejad made a surprise appearance at a major sporting event. The previous occasion was in early March when Iran made it to the finals of the World Wrestling Championship against Azerbaijan. Iran lost that match too.

In all likelihood, Ahmadinejad is going to make the most of this year's nuclear technology day ceremony to boost his falling popularity at home. Unlike the economy, the nuclear programme is one area which Ahmadinejad has not ruined. Many people believe that the only reason is because he is not in charge of it. Nevertheless, thanks to Ayatollah Khamenei, Ahmadinejad will gladly use the opportunity as a means to boost his position.

This will be the case even if Iran's nuclear programme has not made any spectacular gains in the past year. Ahmadinejad could quite possibly paint a picture that is rosier than the reality. He will have no other choice — this is his last chance before the elections. The Iranian electorate is unforgiving and he has to take every opportunity to reach out to them.

The international community, especially Israel and the US, may have a different perception on Ahmadinejad's nuclear technology day declarations. Any major announcement could be taken as a sign of antagonism, or threat. This would be logical. However, the international community should understand that promoting one's capability and leveraging power is a tried and tested negotiation method. In other words, there is also the possibility that forthcoming statements could be mere bolstering to improve Iran's position before the start of negotiations with the US.

This is one area which Ahmadinejad has no control over. In fact, negotiations with the US may make or break his presidency.

Until now, the supreme leader has offered unprecedented support to Ahmadinejad. However, new events on the ground may mean that for the next elections, matters may not be entirely in Khamenei's hands. The election of Barack Obama and his offer of unconditional talks with Iran have created new challenges for the supreme leader. With such a popular president at the helm in Washington, shunning America could be a costly mistake.

Khamenei realises that during the expected negotiations, Obama would prefer a reformist resident of the presidential office in Louis Pasteur Street in Tehran. This is why he is waiting to negotiate with Iran after the Iranian presidential elections. He does not want to improve Ahmadinejad's chances.

Although the supreme leader is under no obligation to compromise with Obama, shunning the US president would be damaging, both diplomatically and economically. Realising that the re-election of Ahmadinejad may be interpreted as a rebuff in Washington, it is very possible that Khamenei may decide that Ahmadinejad's removal may serve his interests far more than keeping him as president.

On nuclear technology day, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could try to take all the glory for Iran's nuclear programme. Despite that, the day after Iran's presidential elections, he may find himself the most prominent victim of the "Obama factor".

Christiane Amanpour’s E-Ran

http://courseweb.hopkins.k12.mn.us/mod/resource/view.php?id=13385

Last year, CNN.com ran a hilarious TV marketing campaign, placing CNN's on-air talent in Spinal-Tappish situations. It's nice to see CNN let down their hair a little.

Here’s hoping we all let our hair down a little as well, before we get down preparing for the AP Test (s), 31 days away as of last Friday.

We will start Amanpour’s birthplace – E-Ran ­­on Thursday. Attached here are links to great review sites for both the Comparative and American Government tests. During the last two weeks of class, we will use the review format from the Hopkins High School (MN) site.

Go to: http://courseweb.hopkins.k12.mn.us/course/view.php?id=434
and focus on the FRQ Writing Guide under General Course Documents, as well as the Practice MCQs & FRQs and the Election Systems Review Chart

Follow the blog regularly for other links and posts to review for both tests on May 4.

Clinton admits US blame on drugs

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says the US must take part of the blame for drug-related violence in Mexico, as the BBC reports here:

Speaking as she arrived in Mexico, she said America's appetite for drugs and its inability to stop arms crossing the border were helping fuel the violence.

Her two-day visit comes a day after the Obama administration announced new measures to boost border security.

Some 8,000 people have died in drug-related violence in Mexico over the past two years.

On Tuesday, the White House unveiled a $700m (£475m) strategy that includes boosting security on the border, moves to stem the flow of illegal guns and drug profits from the US into Mexico, and steps to cut domestic drug consumption.

Speaking to reporters accompanying her to Mexico City, Mrs Clinton said: "Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade.

"Our inability to prevent weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians.

"I feel very strongly we have a co-responsibility."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7963292.stm

_________________

Do you agree with Secretary Clinton's statement? And if so, what is the US to do about it?
_________________

Third World/The United States of Mexico Study Guide

Presidente Fox/President Bush on boarder policy
WTO/NAFTA effects on Mexico
Mexican independence
Constitution of 1917 -- similarities & differences with US Constitution
President and Generals of Mexico till mid-20th century
Mexican legislature -- format and characteristics
Political Parties -- PAN,PRI,PRD place on political spectrum
Sexenio presidency
Federal Election Commission
Political Efficacy in Mexico
Technicos
Politicos
Mestizos
patron-client relations
corruption
corporatist structure
Para-statal sector
PEMEX
Mexico's policy of structural adjustment under Fox/Calderon
Economy/Immigration as a poltical issue
Narco War as a political issue...legitimacy of the state
Mexican trade with U.S./U.S. trade with Mexico
Mexican civil service
Mexican political culture
Mexico by comparitive economic sectors
Camarillas
Political cleavages in Mexico
Judicial Review in Mexico?
Mexicans living in the U.S. and the effects on both countries
Presidente Calderon on private investment of state oil/electricity

Presidential Bracketology

It’s bracket time boys and girls, and here is your opportunity to show your stuff by telling us who you think is the best.

Washington or Cleveland; Roosevelt or Lincoln?

Espn.com is not going to help you predict bracket busters in this contest, but a history book might.

Before you predict that your Final Four is going to resemble Mount Rushmore, remember that Washington and Jefferson are in the same regional and that Mount Rushmore doesn’t include FDR or Reagan.

Link here: 74.220.207.112/~mrreedne/usva/projects/brackets/bracket.htm to Jeffrey Reed's website and follow the directions, dividing the class into four brackets. Each take a bracket, print it and fill it out. We'll go over the Madness on Monday.

The directions:

*Divide your class into four groups. Assign each group one of the four bracket divisions.
*Each group must research the presidents listed inside their division.
A focus should be on the accomplishments and failures of each president.
*For each matchup the group argues which of the two presidents was "greater."
This continues until all four groups have chosen the "greatest" president from their division.
*Each group briefly reviews their decisions to the class as a whole and then announces which president they selected as their winner.
*The entire class then debates the merits of the four division champions and reaches consensus on how the four should be ranked.

Note
*Do not discourage "upsets". Explain to your students that the seeds are in place according to numerous surveys of historians, and that so long as their choices are based on historical information they can proceed as they see fit. Of course, they will be pitting their winner against three others, so they want to come up with the president who in their minds is the strongest.

What's a failed state?

Two articles in the current issue of Foreign Policy present the question: Are Russia and Mexico on the verge of becoming failed states?

Half the class will read the first article:

Reversal of Fortune

"Vladimir Putin’s social contract has been premised on an authoritarian state delivering rising incomes and resurgent power. But the economic crisis is unraveling all that. And what comes next in Russia might be even worse...

"Today’s Russia is not the Soviet Union, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is not Joseph Stalin. But just as historians view 1929 as the end of the revolutionary period of Soviet history, scholars will (and already do) define Putin’s rule as a restoration that followed a revolution. Restoration—of lost geopolitical influence, of Soviet symbols, of fear, of even Stalin’s reputation—has been the main narrative of the past decade. But as history shows, periods of restoration do not restore the old order; they create new threats. This is what Russia is today—a new, much more nationalistic and aggressive country that bears as much (or as little) resemblance to the Soviet Union as it does to the free and colorful, though poor and chaotic, Russia of the 1990s...

"Confidence in the rule of a wealthy, heavy-handed Russian state has been shaken, and it is now a real possibility that the global economic crisis, as it persists and even intensifies, could cause Putin’s social contract to unravel. What is not clear, however, is what would take its place—and whether it would be any improvement. The nationalist passions and paranoia that Putin has stirred up have poisoned Russian society in lasting ways. Now, 2009 could be a new “Great Break” [1929] for Russia, but the result might just be a country in upheaval—broken..."
____________________

Half will read the second:

State of War

"Mexico’s hillbilly drug smugglers have morphed into a raging insurgency. Violence claimed more lives there last year alone than all the Americans killed in the war in Iraq. And there’s no end in sight...

"Mexico’s surge in gang violence has been accompanied by a similar spike in kidnapping...

"All of this is taking a toll on Mexicans who had been insulated from the country’s drug violence. Elites are retreating to bunkered lives behind video cameras and security gates. Others are fleeing for places like San Antonio and McAllen, Texas...

"Mexico’s gangs had the means and motive to create upheaval, and in Mexico’s failure to reform into a modern state, especially at local levels, the cartels found their opportunity. Mexico has traditionally starved its cities. They have weak taxing power. Their mayors can’t be reelected. Constant turnover breeds incompetence, improvisation, and corruption. Local cops are poorly paid, trained, and equipped...

"In addition to fighting each other, the cartels are now increasingly fighting the Mexican state as well, and the killing shows no sign of slowing. The Mexican Army is outgunned, even with U.S. support..."

______________________

Get into groups to explain to their classmates what they've read. Defend or contradict the failed state prognosis. Ask them to come to some agreements.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4350