Thursday, December 27, 2007

Bhutto killing: Last best hope for Pakistan democracy assassinated?

Ms Bhutto was Pakistan's prime minister twice. The first term of office between 1988 and 1990 coincided with the latter years of UK PM Margaret Thatcher's rule.

In our Comparative Politics text book, Chip Hauss lists the Crtieria for Democracy:

"There is no single uniformly accepted set of criteria in determining whether a country is democratic. Of the five that follow, however, the first three are on every list:
  • Basic Freedoms

  • The rule of law

  • Competitive, fair and free elections

  • A strong civil society and civic culture

  • Capitalism and affluence

There was no question in the eight years Benizar Bhutto -- the first woman ever elected to office (she was prime minister twice) in a Muslim country -- was exciled, her country had become less democratic than it had been.

In fact, Pakistan ranked 113 out of 167 countries in The Economist's 2007 Democracy Index.

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy index is based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. The condition of having free and fair competitive elections, and satisfying related aspects of political freedom, is clearly the basic requirement of all definitions.

Pakistan ranked scored a 3.92 (the most democratic country, Sweden, was 9.88). Its highest ranking for political participation probably gave Bhutto hope. Its lowest scores came in functioning of govenment and civil liberties -- categories that she promised to rise if elected president, and the polls indicated she was on her way to victory.

By comparision with our countires of study, Pakistan ranked ahead of Nigeria (124th; 3.52; low functionig of govt), China (138th; 2.97 0.00 for electoral process and pluralism); and Iran (139th; 2.93; 0.08 for electoral process and pluralism), and below Russia (102nd; 5.02; low political participation), Mexico (53rd; 6.67; ranked as a flawed democracy) the UK (23rd; 8.08; low political participation) and the U.S. (17th; 8.22; low political participation).

http://www.economist.com/markets/rankings/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8908438

But that did not keep Bhutto from going back to keep working for democracy. Her assassination is felt around the globe and can be another starting point of the challenges of democratization in a globalized world with factions. After reading the BBC link and viewing the BBC interview, consider whether Bhutto was a last best hope for democracy in Pakistan. She says in the BBC interview, "Unfortunately, Pakistan has become one of the most dangerous places in the world,'' she said.

"We have to restore the Rule of Law in the country. . .I am a threat to Dictatorship, I am a threat to Extremists, I am not a threat to any Democrat. There is a strong moderate middle that needs to be mobilized. The forces of freedom and moderation need to be strengthened in my country."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/newsid_7160000/newsid_7162100/7162107.stm?bw=bb&mp=wm&asb=1&news=1&bbcws=1

Consider various factors on this major event in world politics:

Can Democracy Work in Islamic Countries?

Will scheduled elections of Jan. 8 go on (Bhutto was expcted to win the Presidency)? What effect will elections have on true democracy in Pakistan (or Russia, earlier)

What should the U.S. government do about a Pakistan president who has recieived $11 billion in aid as an ally on the war on terror, but could not keep a security detail on is opposition political rival?

And, how will this tragedy effect the U.S. presidential caucus in Iowa and early primaries. (ie: will we be looking for a more experienced commander-in-chief type -- McCain, Biden...Hillary instead of a more hopeful outsider -- Obama, Huckabee.) ?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7162194.stm

The L Word

Hauss explains that American students are often confussed by the word liberal. In the U.S., it refers to people who support an interventionist government (or at least promoted as weak by Fair and Balanced News Channels). Everywhere else in the world, however, it has almost the opposite connotation -- opposition to government interference in the economy or other areas where individuals can freely make decisions for themselves.

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius writes that the Harvard-educated Bhutto was a true voice for liberalism, tolerance, and change:

"She believed in democracy, freedom and openness -- not as slogans but as a way of life. She wasn't perfect; the corruption charges that enveloped her second term as prime minister were all too real. But she remained the most potent Pakistani voice for liberalism, tolerance and change.

"She believed in democracy, freedom and openness -- not as slogans but as a way of life. She wasn't perfect; the corruption charges that enveloped her second term as prime minister were all too real. But she remained the most potent Pakistani voice for liberalism, tolerance and change.

"A less determined person would have backed off when her conservative Muslim enemies tried to kill her after she returned home in October. But Bhutto had crossed that bridge a long time ago. She was a person who, for all her breeding and cultivation, ran headlong at life. Her father and two brothers had died for their vision of a country where Islam and the modern world made an accommodation. Her only real fear, I think, was that she might fail in her mission.

Her assassination was, as President Bush said yesterday, a "cowardly act." It was a defining act of the politics of murder -- a phenomenon that we see from Lebanon to Iraq to Pakistan. If we forget, with the passage of time, the face of the Muslim extremism responsible for Sept. 11, 2001, here is a reminder: Bhutto's killers targeted her because she was modern, liberal and unafraid. "

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/27/AR2007122701479.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

In 1997, Fareed Zakaria wrote about the rise of illiberal democracies:

"It has been difficult to recognize this problem because for almost a century in the West, democracy has meant liberal democracy -- a political system marked not only by free and fair elections, but also by the rule of law, a separation of powers, and the protection of basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property. In fact, this latter bundle of freedoms -- what might be termed constitutional liberalism -- is theoretically different and historically distinct from democracy. As the political scientist Philippe Schmitter has pointed out, "Liberalism, either as a conception of political liberty, or as a doctrine about economic policy, may have coincided with the rise of democracy. But it has never been immutably or unambiguously linked to its practice." Today the two strands of liberal democracy, interwoven in the Western political fabric, are coming apart in the rest of the world. Democracy is flourishing; constitutional liberalism is not."

http://www.fareedzakaria.com/ARTICLES/other/democracy.html

As the events in Pakistan point out, the challenge of democracy is not getting any easier.



6 comments:

Sree said...

I don't know how much of a democracy she would have brought to Pakistan. As seen from her PM years, she was very very corrupt and she ignored the troubles of the people. She wanted to keep her supporters and the elite happy.

This type of political event is not uncommon to South Asian politics. From the Bhuttos in Paksitan to the Ghandis in India, assasinations are a way to gain power by the other party.

In my opinoin, I don't think that this was an attack by some random militant. I think this attack was coordinated by Musharaff with accordance with the Taliban/ Al Qaida. The media can blame Al Qaida all they want but it is clearly evident that Musharaff had something to do with this because Bhutto was the biggest threat to his power.

It is a little discomforting when such unstability is occuring in a nuclear armed nation. I think that the nukes are safer in the hands of Musharaff and his reign rather than in a democracy becaues of the corruption that accompanies it, as seen during the Bhutto years.

Anonymous said...

There is no reason democracy would not work in Pakistan. The catch is getting rid of the mullahs and the dictatorial generals (read: Musharaff). However, the elections on January 8 could easily end up being a sham, just like in Russia. By the way, I agree with Sreeharsha 110% as to who is at fault. I also agree that nukes are safer in the hands of Musharaff, but what if there was an unstable dictator? With over sixty nukes, a rogue Pakistani general can't directly destroy the world, but he could pull a Sum of All Fears and spark Armageddon. And with Osama still running around, I'd say we have our hands full.

Mr Wolak said...

Sreeharsha said:

"attack was coordinated by Musharaff with accordance with the Taliban/ Al Qaida. . .nukes are safer in the hands of Musharaff rather than in a democracy."

Garrett said:

"I agree nukes are safer in the hands of Musharaff, but what if there was an unstable dictator?"

Your comments beg the question, is a flawed democracy (where people have legitimate, if limited, power) better than a more secure authoritarian rule, with its faults, that you both point out?

The other point not to be missed is if Bhutto would have lived to be elected again, this time as President, would that have been a real step back towards democracy, or would it have been an American-interst power-sharing puppet regime?

Also, is it concerning that our administration and many in Congress, including many Prez. candidates, seem to be OK with an ally President who both of you seem to believe had a hand on killing his political rival?

Here's what some of the candidates said:

WILLIAMSBURG, Iowa -- A day after former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, White House hopeful Barack Obama said the United States needs to come down hard on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf.

Obama said today he would suspend any military aid to Pakistan not directly going to fight al Qaida until Musharraf gets “serious” about stomping out the group.
______________

John Edwards was one of the few U.S. politicians who spoke with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf after yesterday's assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. In the TV interview, Edwards said he urged Musharraf to appoint outside advisers to make sure Pakistan's military and intelligence service weren't complicit in Bhutto's murder.

``I tried to impress upon him the importance of bringing in outside, independent, international investigators to determine how this happened, what the real facts are,'' Edwards said. Musharraf said he ``hadn't yet thought about it, but that he would,'' according to Edwards.
__________________

STORY CITY, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton called on Friday for an international probe of Benazir Bhutto's killing and candidates in both parties sparred over foreign policy six days before Iowa kicks off a close presidential nominating race.

Clinton, battling rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards for the lead in Iowa, questioned the reliability of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's government after opposition leader Bhutto's assassination.

"I don't think the Pakistani government at this time under President Musharraf has any credibility at all," Clinton said in an interview with CNN as she campaigned across Iowa. "Therefore I am calling for a full independent international investigation."
_________________

Mr. Biden tried to sound presidential as he expressed concern about loose nuclear weapons in Pakistan, and he also emphasized his foresight by noting that he had long called Pakistan “the most dangerous nation on the planet.”

(NY Times)
________________

Mr. Richardson, a former diplomat, made an effort to cast himself as a man of action, meanwhile, calling for President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan to step down.
(NY Times)
__________________

Mr. McCain, speaking in New Hampshire, also sought to convey leader-to-leader chemistry when he called Mr. Musharraf a “personally scrupulously honest” man who deserved “the benefit of the doubt” on uniting Pakistan.

(NY Times)
___________________

But Mike Huckabee, the leading Republican in polls of Iowa caucusgoers, found himself on the defensive on Friday, trying to clarify earlier remarks in which he said the chaos in Pakistan underscored the need to build a fence on the American border with Mexico, and that “any unusual activity of Pakistanis coming into the country” should be monitored.

(NY Times)
_____________________

Mitt Romney said that, if he had been president, he would have gathered information from “our C.I.A. bureau chief in Islamabad.” The Central Intelligence Agency has station chiefs, not bureau chiefs. (That said, Mr. Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, invoked Mr. Reagan on Friday as a great foreign policy leader, and noted, “he was a governor, not a so-called foreign policy expert.”)

(NY Times)
_______________

In sum, the NY Times stated:

"But as the complexity of the situation there has set in on the Bush administration in recent years, the talk of democracy has contrasted sharply with the need for stability (something Rudolph W. Giuliani talked about Friday).

The Bush administration’s approach so far has been to back Mr. Musharraf at all costs; only Mr. McCain seemed to echo that on Friday."

Anonymous said...

Good point, Mr. Wolak. Musharraf is, after all, giving us more than token assistance in the fight against al-Qaeda. I still don't like the idea of an alliance with a dictator unless absolutely necessary. Anyway, the reason people back Musharraf is because he is stable, even if he is authoritarian. As for Bhutto, I don't think she would have been a puppet. I think she was too independent for that. Too bad we'll never know.

Alex Crook said...

Musharraf is overrated. He says one thing and does another. He even struck a deal with al-qaida and other groups to stop the violence, and gave them, more or less, control over half of pakistan. In recent polls, half of pakistani people agreed or thought that osama bin laden was a favorable person/supported radical islamist groups, which are concentrated in the north of Pakistan. Musharraf is only looking out for himself, and his own power. As Barack Obama has stated, prior to the marshall law incident, we need to decrease our aid to Pakistan. Bhutto was sure to win in the elections, and Musharraf did not like this. There is now a UN inquiry into her death, but unfortunately, this is the way that middle eastern politics works. But after that long rant, yes, she was the last hope for democracy. We all know that a college student, who doesn't even speak the local language is not going to run the party effectively.

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