I'll be watching the developments from Iowa tonite, and hope you will join me in conversation in the blogosphere. Sarah Sampson says she'll check in on the ground from Des Monines. C-Span will have gavel-to-gavel coverage inside one of the Democratic caucus sights at 7 pm, with a call-in preview at 6 pm. C-Span II will cover the Republican caucus.
http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/schedule.csp
By the way, the Republican contest is a much more standard show up and vote, whereas the Democrats with second-round horse trading is more interesting to watch and comment on. Also, listen to the talking heads and critique what they say. Last night, three callers on C-Span projected Ron Paul to finish a solid third on the Republican side. Hope to hear from you here in the comments section tonite,
By the way, the Republican contest is a much more standard show up and vote, whereas the Democrats with second-round horse trading is more interesting to watch and comment on. Also, listen to the talking heads and critique what they say. Last night, three callers on C-Span projected Ron Paul to finish a solid third on the Republican side. Hope to hear from you here in the comments section tonite,
19 comments:
THEY'RE on the clock...Caucus-goers in Iowa have the next 30 minutes to publicly be counted for their stated presidential preference....
Democratic Precinct 53, with a total of 375 caucus-goers (the chair said that might be a record) have started their first-round of counting.
In his opening remarks, Jim Sutton the temporary caucus chair said, "People ask why should we have the first presidential preference in Iowa, fist we've had peace since the seventh day. If the world ever gains world peace, it would be like Iowa. We've always had peace in Precinct 53."
The Biden group at Des Moines 53 is breaking up, as Sen. Biden has not achieved the "15% viability."
Bill Richardson's campaign seems to have fourth-place momentum. Earlier today their was a report that Richardson would tell his supporters to go Obama's way if he didn't get the 15% threshold. Richardson denied that report.
Offically, they just announced that a candidate needed 53 votes to be "viable" and Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson didn't have that number.
They have 15 minutes to get more votes, or to move over to a second-choice.
C-Span (channel 23) is showing the horse-trading battle between Edwards and Obama supporters and Richardson people trying to get the second-choicers of the Dodd and Biden camps.
Earlier it was reported that Chris Dodd was expected to drop out of the race if he did not finish in the Final Four in Iowa.
On the C-Span ticker news that this is not a Black & White Election:
Jesse Jackson's wife has done a radio ad in support of Hillary Clinton. Rev. Jackson is supporting Clinton.
Earlier Chris Matthews said if Obama and Huckabee win tonight, it will be a bad day for the regulars.
He projected that if Obama lives up to the polls it may signal change as "A lot of white people have traditionally lied to polsters about voting for a black candidate." He used the example of African-American LA Mayor Tom Bradley leading in Gov. polls in CA only to get beaten badly on election night.
The times, they may be a changing...can presidential race politics be color blind? Maybe if Obama can win in lily-white Iowa and follows up in equally white N.H.
THEY're EVERYWHERE (seemingly) a Ron Paul T-shirt wearer in the Democratic Precinct 53 caucus. Wonder why se wasn't caucusing for Paul herself????
In precinct 53, in Des Moines, OBAMA wins 186 votes over EDWARDS 116 and CLINTON 74. That translated to 3 convention delegate for OBAMA, 2 for EDWARDS and 1 for CLINTON. It took an hour to stand and be counted, much longer than the 5 minutes it will be for those who cast ballots in our Feb. 5 primary. But it won't be nearly as exciting here, and they left knowing the result of their precinct. We won't know into well into the night.
NBC News projects Mike Huckabee the winner, 31% to 23% for Mitt Romney. The motto, "you don't have to follow the money," apparently paid off.
NBC News projects Barack Obama as the winner 36% to Edwards 30% and Clinton 30%.
Chris Matthews says,"What does that say about Hillary Clinton, the inevitable candidate, when two-thirds of the democratic party votes against you?''
Air America's Rachel Meadow countered, "I think it's too early to call it very bad night for Hillary Clinton. Two-thirds of democrats voted against all three of the candidates if it winds up nearly a three-way tie.
"I don't think it's a terrible night for Hillary if she narrowly loses basically a three-way tie."
Chris Matthews just had Rudy Guliani on. After congratulating Mike Huckabee on his victory, Rudy said, "I'm the only candidate that can run in all 50 states."
Really??
Rudy didn't really run in Iowa. He got just 4%, 6th place behind the Ron Paul Revolution??? 5th place, 10%.
Fred Thompson, with 14%, a distant third behind Huckabee and Romney.
If you are watching returns, notice that the count is of convention delegates for the Democrats -- making it a more tangible number.
The Republicans are measured with their popular vote, with GOP delegates to "officially" be determined later.
Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean may feel like screaming "FYAAAAAAHHH!!!!!" again in Iowa. He just said the Democratic caucus-goers doubled GOP'ers who showed up to stand and be counted.
"That's a repudiation of George W. Bush as far as I'm concerned,'' Dean said.
They project a record number of caucus-goers, maybe credit to the new voters Obama and Hillary brought to the gyms, ommunity centers and church halls.
NBC's David Gregory reported that the caucus he attended in West Des Moines had just 86 people take part 4 years ago. Tonight, 267 showed up.
Among the numbers, Obama's on the ground young organization may have also paid off. Gregory said that Chris Dodd's chairman got called out of town on business and his campaign missed the bus. The Edwards website, apparently instructed supporters to go to the wrong site.
The only mistake the Obama's camp made was they didn't bring enough beads to count their supporters.
The Iowa Democratic Party released a record number of 212,000 caucus-goers with 91% of the precincts counted.
56% were first-timers, and over 20%were young voters -- up from 17% in 2004.
Tim Russert on MSNBC said the high Democratic turnout in Iowa -- a state that went for W in 2004 -- "could shake up the red & blue electoral college map."
Democratic caucus-goers said change was the most important factor in their vote.
There was also a gender divide. While 57% of Democrats counted Thursday were women, Obama won plurality of women's vote 35% to 30% for Hillary.
Hillary won the older women's vote, but Barrack won the counts of younger women.
I'm getting a bit tired of typing to myself here....if any of you are out there, SPEAK UP!
John Edwards giving his speech, intro'd by his wife Elizabeth as the, "Second-Place Winner,'' came out with the song, "In The Name of Love,'' by the best band in the world, U2.
"This march of change continues on,'' Edwards said. "Thank you for second place."
Edwards did not concede victory to Obama.
Meanwhile, Hillary with a placard that says "Ready for Change," said this was a great night for Democrats. She congratulated Obama and Edwards.
Earlier the Clinton campaign projected they could win with about 160,000 turnout. Butthe number was much higher than that.
Hillary said now all Democrats, like minded Independents and Republicans "that have seen the light,'' need to focus on two questions:
"Who is the candidate to go the distance, and who will be the best president on Day One?'' Clinton said. "I am so ready to lead."
Mike Huckabee, in his victory speech, was light on policy plans and heavy on folksy talk about our great country of "We the People," with enaliable rights given to us by our Creator. He said he was on a mission to give the rights back to the people.
Huckabee said he wished it was over, but that the journey had just begun. Some exit polls, however, could give the GOP victor pause. He had over 50% of his support from Born Again or Evangelical Christians.
Among those who said religion was either not or not very important, Huckabee was fourth with 13%.
Most of the voters in New Hampshire are secular, so there is a real question of the Republican bump east in five days.
More of how change carried the night in Iowa, Joe Biden was the second veteran senator, following Chris Dodd, has dropped out of the race.
I have seen film and read about Robert Kennedy and his run with young hopeful enthusiastic supporters around him. I thought of Bobby Kennedy tonight when I heard Obama's victory speech. Here's hoping we don't have to worry about literally keeping hope alive.
"In this defining moment in history, you have don what cynics said you couldn't do. You have done what the State of New Hampshire can do in five days and you have done what this country can do in this new year,'' Obama said.
"One nation, one people and time for change has come."
While John Edwards has long talked about two Americas, two groups that traditionally have been separated from political influence -- African Americans and Youth -- may come together in the support for Obama.
A CROSS-CUTTING CLEAVAGE cuts across each other, this can lessen the presence of conflict across groups and Cross-pressures help produce "bridges" across the cleavages, making agreement and compromise more likely.
Obama had 57% of the vote of the under 30 caucus-goers (compared to 14% for Edwards and 13% for Hillary). So the youth came out and were color-blind in Iowa (where 91% of the voters were white and just 4% were black).
Next on the nominating calendar is New Hampshire, with a largely white electorate. Then South Carolina, with many more potential black voters who pundits say are/were waiting to see the electoral viability of Obama.
An excellent caucus for tonight. I'm very excited for Obama's win. Although it does not set anything into stone, his strong showing among Independents could help him in New Hampshire, where 40% of the registered voters are Independents. With a win in NH, momentum could spread to South Carolina and then to the later primaries. Wish my dad wasn't such a buzz-kill, saying "a couple of farm-hicks" don't really matter. That's politics for ya.
Well, I was wrong. I forgot Giuliani hadn't canvassed Iowa. But I was right on Obama. Remember, though, only one candidate in the entire history of the caucuses won them and then the presidency: Jimmy Carter. I'm thinking Obama might win in New Hampshire simply because he sticks to his guns, which is more than I can say for Hillary. Hillary could make a strong showing elsewhere, but I think most Dems will side with Obama. Hillary is just annoying and Edwards is too dang liberal. On the Republican side, I don't think Huckabee can maintain momentum. Since New Hampshire has a high concentration of independents, his evangelical beliefs may turn a number of people off (such as Yours Truly). Huckabee may do well in the Deep South, Kansas, Nebraska, and other deeply religious states, but I'm still betting on Giuliani.
All I can say is, I'm sure Hillary is thinking just one thing:
"FYAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!"
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