It is believed to be Illinois' first election on a Saturday -- a special election to fill the term of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert -- probably the second-most closely watched race across the country today after Wyoming's Democratic presidential primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
In the 14th Congressional District, Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis and Democratic former particle physicist Bill Foster have each spent a million or more of their own money, combined with millions from outside sources.
Both campaigns have thrown "the kitchen sink" at each other. Another example that negative ads work. Much of the outside money have come from the Democratic (Cow, can we trust Bill Foster, Nooooooooo) Republican (Foster, "There isn't a problem that can't be helped by throwing more money at it.") Congressional Committees. The one positive ad seen late in the campaign is Barack Obama's endorsement of Foster.
It would be nice to rely only upon dreamy positive ads in which a candidate is depicted as bring Morning back to America. But these types of ads can be easily ignored by TV viewers or seen as lacking substance. Negative ads that inform the public about an opponent's flaws and controversial stances are hard to ignore.
In essence, negative ads provide more bang for the buck.
But enough of the negative. If you are of our students working on the campaign in the 14th District right in our backyard and running nearly to the Iowa boarder, that's a positive. Blog us and tell us your story. Did you get somebody out to vote? Was it worth you time and effort? What interesting things or people did you see?
Because the election is on a Saturday, some schools, churches and other usual polling places may not be available, so voters will have to visit their county clerk's Web sites to find their new polling places.
Hastert's district has traditionally been Republican, but polls show today's election is a tossup.
"We've got, obviously, some challenges," said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, who heads the GOP efforts to re-take Congress "We're certainly in the center of Obamamania in Illinois."
Obama and 28 Nobel prize winners have endorsed Foster. Hastert and Republican Presidential nominee John McCain have endorsed Oberweis.
6 comments:
I have been following the campaigns of Foster and Oberweis over the past few weeks and I have been very disappointed in both of them for all of the negative ads. I know that those ads and the criticism that go along with them are part of politics, but at some point you have to wonder when they are actually going to tell you what they are going to do for you instead of list all of the flaws of the other candidate.
After 21 years, the Illinois 14th Congressional is no longer safe for the Republican Party. Bill Foster took 52% of the vote to best Jim Oberweiss in the special election.
"This is a political earthquake,'' said U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky at Foster's victory party. "One would have thought that the DNA of this district is Republcan. This means there's not a district in American that's safe for the Republicans."
What exactly is a safe district?
Safe District: CQ politics defines a safe district as one where the nominee is/will be a strong favorite, and an upset is virtually impossible.
For review, party gerrymandering of districts has created many safe congressional districts that had Congressional incumbents re-elected close to 90% of the time.
Since 1988, the first time Dennis Hassert was elected to Congress from the 14th, had been a safe Republican District. While the former Speaker of the House never ran unopposed (as some reps. do from safe districts), he won 10 straight elections with 60% of the vote or more.
For further discussion, though, is the fact that Foster and Oberweiss will square off again in Nov. for a full two-year term after $1.5 million was spent by each side on the increasingly nasty commercials just in the last week.
Was it worth it? Or if Hassert wasn't going to finish off his term, should the 14th have been left unrepresented?
Oberweiss spent more of his own money on the campaign than Foster, with fewer returns. I'll be surprised if he defeats Foster in November.
I'm just going to throw in my two cents: Oberweis is a kook. He's always been a kook. He always will be a kook. Everyone knows he's a kook. No one in their right mind votes for a kook. If the GOP wants to know why Oberweis lost, I just gave the answer.
Why IL-14 Mattered:
(From MyDD.com blog):
It didn't take long for Bill Foster to make an impact in Congress.
Foster, a Democratic scientist/businessman, won a special election Saturday to replace retired former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) in the House. He was sworn into his seat representing the exurban 14th Congressional District on Tuesday afternoon. By evening, he was casting what was arguably the deciding vote on a white-hot ethics bill.
The bill, pushed aggressively by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), creates an independent, outside panel to investigate ethics complaints against House members. The House approved it last night, 229-182, with most Democrats in favor and most Republicans opposed. That margin is deceptive: Before final passage, the bill first had to clear a much closer procedural vote, which gave House members a chance to kill the idea without, technically, voting against it.
The bill survived that test by a single vote, with Foster voting in favor.
I agree with Kacy, but unfortunately, negative ads are here to stay. There is an old baseball saying that goes, “Nice guys finish last.” It is truer in politics than baseball. I believe politicians would like to stay away from negative ads, but when someone throws mud, you have to throw back. Remember the South Carolina debate when Barak Obama brought up something negative in Hillary Clinton’s record and Hillary shot back with a reference to Tony Rezko, the “slum landlord” that Barak was friends with at one time. It was as if she was saying, “Look, if you are going to sling mud, I’m going to be throwing back.” The closer the race is between two candidates, the more negative ads you will see. I think we saw all that with Foster vs. Oberweis. The only way you will not see a negative ad is when one candidate is so far ahead in the polls, it’s not worth it, like when Obama defeated Alan Keyes for Illinois Senator.
As for Mr. Wolak’s comments, no district is safe anymore. For this district to go from a Republican controlled district by the Speaker of the House to a democratic district in a matter of weeks must have the Republicans very worried.
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