Calling critical elections merely important is a grand understatement. Here again students of government must learn the special vocabulary of politics. Critical elections are much more than just significant.
Critical elections involve a realignment of voters. When a long-standing loyal group of voters switch their allegiance from one party to another we call that a realignment. When these realignments occur, political scientists call it a critical election.
It is does not happen often.
1860, 1896 and 1932 are three presidential elections in our history which have been labeled critical. In each, a realignment of voters took place. The most important was 1932. In that election, Franklin Roosevelt was able to build his New Deal coalition. The Democratic party would dominate Washington for years to come.
The Democratic grip on Washington, particularly Congress, was not broken until 1994. In 1994 Republicans regained the majority leadership in Congress. No significant realignment, however, took place. 1994 saw, at best, a dealignment. Although some Democrats in that year abandoned their loyalty, it was not permanent.
Why has it been so long since we have seen a critical election?
Could it be because so many voters now call themselves independents? It is difficult to have a realignment when so many are not aligned at all.
Some are imagining that 2008 could be another critical election. There is some thought that Barack Obama could attract a permanent group of young voters, often outside of the process, to join his movement. If he can, there will be a lot of history made next November.
All elections appear to be critical. Only a few deserve the label.
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Critical elections in the United States typically have occurred:
A. as a result of a temporary shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties
B. whenever a third party has secured more than fifteen percent of the presidential vote C. each time a Republican has been elected President
D. when voter turnout has declined significantly from the previous election
E. when groups of voters have changed their traditional patterns of party loyalties
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