Monday, September 29, 2008

Who won the first debate?

So who won the first presidential debate in your mind? Blog here. Three hours before the debate started look to the right or on the link this on-line page from the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG

Both John McCain and Barack Obama claimed victory in Friday's debate and are running ads touting their respective triumphs. Polling data suggests otherwise. A CBS poll using random sampling showed 39% saw Obama as the winner and 24% see McCain as the winner. An Inside Advantage poll reported a virtual tie, with 42% saying Obama won and 41% saying McCain won. An Opinion Research poll done for CNN gave Obama the win, 51% to 38%, with men splitting evenly and women going for Obama 2 to 1. However, the sample had a slight Democratic bias.

A poll on CNN's Website with 80,500 respondents gave Obama the victory 67% to 28%. An NBC survey, which drew 291,000 responses gave the victory to Obama 51% to 35%. Democracy Corps ran a 45-person focus group in St. Louis. The group was heavily tilted towards the Republicans, with 33% identifying as Republicans, 27% identifying as Democrats, and the rest independents. The group as a whole voted for Bush over Kerry by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004. Nevertheless, by a 38% to 27% margin, they felt that Obama won the debate.

In addition to all the polls reported yesterday yet another poll shows that Obama won the debate Friday. A Gallup poll showed that 46% of the people who watched it thought Obama won and 34% thought McCain won. When asked which candidate can best solve the country's problems, it is Obama 52% to 35%. Since this debate was largely about foreign policy, McCain's strongest suit, these results do not bode well for him in the coming debate, which is about domestic policy. But as the tracking polls start covering the post debate period, we will have a better idea of whether it changed how people will vote. After all, someone can say: "Obama is the better debater but I think McCain would be a better President." The next debate is between the Vice-Presidential nominees on Oct. 2 at Washington University in St. Louis, MO.

www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Sep29.html

Blog here on your thoughts about Friday night.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I was expecting McCain to do not so great, but he made Obama frustrated a few times when he wouldn't let him speak, although I guess that's normal. I would have shown guts though if he looked at Obama, this showed that he was really nervous and wouldn't give him a clear victory. So far, I don't think we can claim a winner because Dems will just agree with what Obama is saying and visa versa; nothing significant enough yet.