Saturday, February 25, 2012

Comparative election scoreboard watching

It is election season in many places in the world, with significant contests being held in countries of our comparative study.

First, while we all are focused on the likely return election of, "A Man Like (well, is) Putin" to the Russian presidency on March 4, a referendum in the near-abroad state of Latvia last week soundly rejected a referendum measure that would have made Russian the second official language. Wonder what Putin said in Russian. Insert your own expletive.

Here's how World Elections broke down the how the ethnic cleavage in Latvia:

"For Latvian voters who probably knew the referendum had no chance of passage, turning out was likely a way to assert their country’s independence because the linguistic battles between Latvian and Russian often carries a major nationalistic element: Latvian voters viewed the referendum as an attempt to encroach on their country’s independence and worry that Moscow might seek to influence Latvian politics through the country’s Russian minority.


Unsurprisingly, the referendum showed a wide schism in Latvian society between ethnic Latvians and ethnic Russians. The result was almost a picture-perfect map of an ethnic vote. Latvian-speakers were almost unanimous in their rejection of the proposals, with results in the few communities with barely any Russians often nearing 99% against. Russians were, on the other hand, slightly less overwhelming in their support, but I think we can still estimate their support of the proposals in the 90% range. Their votes, of course, were drowned by the heavy turnout and unanimous opposition of Latvians.

Given how polarizing the question of language is in Latvia, whereby most Latvians are quasi-unanimous in their opposition to Russian and the Russians quasi-unanimous in their support for Russian, the referendum never stood a chance of passing. The results were:



No 74.8%

Yes 24.88%

Invalid 0.32%

World Elections
_____________________

With his likely return to the presidency of Russia on March 4, Vladimir Putin will likely drum up Russian nationalism upon his return. How will he deal with near-abroad states like Latvia, Georgia, Chechnya? Will the past Iron-Fist approach fit? Here's how the Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS) breaks down the Russian electoral system:


Prior to Russia's presidential election, the theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its parliamentary election on March 2. Iran has a unicamerial Islamic Consultive Assembly -- the Majles --voters play a part in this complicated, non-democratic system outlined by the CEPPS here:

Iran -- Parliamentary -- March 2, 2012

Mexico has a Sexano presidency -- one, 6-year term. Felipe Calderon's successor will inherit a continued Narco War at home, a stalled (for years) cooperative immigration policy with the U.S., and an economy still slowed by global competition from China and India. Calderon's close, disputed, but legitimately reviewed 2006 election victory was seen as a major democractic step for the United States of Mexico. Legislative seats are also contested on the same day.

Mexico -- Presidential and Congress -- July 1, 2012

Nigeria's election of President Goodluck Jonathan and the UK's alternative vote referendum were both contested in 2011. Here's how the CEPPS breaks down the electoral systems there. In the UK, however, there was also electoral reform with the Fixed Term Parilament Act of 2011. Passed in September, the Act introduced fixed-term elections for the first time to the Westminster parliament. Under the provisions of the Act, parliamentary elections must be held every five years, beginning in 2015. The Act received the Royal Assent on 15 September 2011. Fixed-term Parliaments, where general elections ordinarily take place in accordance with a schedule set far in advance, were part of the Conservative – Liberal Democrat Coalition Agreement which was produced after the 2010 general election.

Fixed Term Parliament (UK) Act of 2011

Nigeria, April 2011

UK, May 2011

While the CCP has already selected its presidential successor, the Assessing Democracy Assistance Project analyzes the Chinese system, where it seems like there is some seeding of democratic principles and contests at the village levels.

Assessing Democracy Assistance in China

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