The Right to Petition

The 2 Regular Guys at CBS2Chicago.com break down this week's Springfield Petition Drive


While the key to getting elected is winning more votes than any of your opponents, this might actually be the easiest step in the campaign process.

The first step for a successful election is getting your name on the ballot, yet many candidates can't even get this far.

Illinois election law mandates that Presidential candidates from an established party (i.e. Democrats and Republicans) must have at least 3,000 registered voters sign petitions in order to get their name on the February 5th Primary ballot. They need names this week.

If a candidate fails to meet this minimum standard, the name can be eliminated from the final ballot. No name, no chance.

Because many of the people who sign these petitions are not actually registered to vote, a well-organized campaign will often get triple the number of needed signatures to survive a potential legal challenge.

But, for candidates from third parties, this is virtually impossible.

Illinois election law requires that Presidential candidates representing "new parties" get
25,000 signatures from registered voters. Most third party candidates have difficulty meeting this minimum standard much less getting enough signatures to survive any legal challenges.

This might not seem fair to prospective independents, and nobody in Springfield–where these laws were written–would argue with you. The Democrats and Republicans who wrote these election laws are products of a two-party system and intend to preserve it.

They would tell any prospective independents to simply pick one of our "established parties" … and be sure you get enough signatures on those petitions.


VIDEO: CBS 2 School: Candidates File Their Petitions

Frontloading: Even the States in a Horserace

The Republican Party of Iowa has now ensured that 2008 will go down as the longest-ever presidential campaign.The Republican caucus in Iowa will be scheduled on January 3, 2008 which means Iowa Republicans will then get to vote in the General Election exactly 11 months and 1 day later.

Political pundits previewing the Democratic candidate debate on Tuesday said there are now about "35 shopping days left" for the candidates until the the first "Election (we should say nominating) Days are here.

Iowa and New Hampshire have traditionally set the stage for the nomination process by hosting the first contests in which the party faithful vote for their preferred candidates to represent the Democratic and Republican parties in the General Election.This tradition is called frontloading as it gives these small states a disproportionate voice in the nomination process.

While just over 400,000 voters took part in the Iowa and NH contests in 2004 (that's less than the number of registered voters in DuPage County) the winners and near winners are vaulted into the national spotlight. The result is that a field of 18 candidates is almost instantly winnowed down to a half-dozen candidates who can garner enough attention, momentum, and money to sustain their campaigns through the contests in larger states.

Larger states such as Florida (Jan. 29), California, New York, and Illinois (Feb. 5) have tried to diminish the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire by scheduling primary elections earlier than ever. But the end result is that candidates have spent even more time and money in Iowa and New Hampshire for fear that failure in these states will carry over to losses in the bigger states.

In our system of federalism, the national government has virtually no control over this process. States and their political parties have final say in the methods used to nominate the top candidates.Until the national parties intervene in the nomination calendar, frontloading by Iowa and New Hampshire will create a year-long election that will always be disproportionately influenced by two of our smaller states.

Can you come up with a better (more fair) nomination calendar, Political Warriors? Create your own nomination schedule and share it here with us.

'Big girls don't cry,' but big boys can?

When is it OK for a man to cry? What about women? What about women in politics?

There may, in fact be another double standard as a variable on why we have yet to have a woman president.

Tom Lutz, a professor at the University of California, Riverside who authored an exhaustive history of crying says a tearful response that would be seen as sensitivity in a man could be seen as a lack of control in his wife.

"Bill could cry, (and did during his presidency), but Hillary can't," says Lutz.

The AP uses the Clinton's -- and Ellen's Iggy sob story of to compare the differences between men and women. The story is linked here: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jSYTw8axol0GWlZ1J55ZJvjL4diQ

So what do you think? If your President, Mrs. Clinton cried, what would you think? Would she show sensitivity? Would it show irrationality?

Or would it just make you cry?

Foreign Policy ain't beanbag

We have talked briefly about the situation arising on the Turkish/Iraqi border, where Turkey had threatened to send troops into Iraq after a deadly weekend clash with rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) that left at least 12 Turkish soldiers dead and 16 others wounded.

The attack on Sunday October 21st, the most audacious in recent memory, raised fears that Turkey would retaliate by sending its army in pursuit of the rebels, who are based inside Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. That might touch off a wider conflagration pitting the Turks against Iraqi Kurds, and, possibly, even Americans in Iraq.

While the economist.com reports that Turkey has said it will give diplomacy a chance http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10010199, this has the Bush foreign policy in another hazardous situation.

The 2 Regular guys give us further insight into the issue, dusting off their clubs and the phrase that "politics, (or in this case) foreign policy ain't beanbag." Post is at CBS2Chicago.com:

When you pull your sand wedge out of the bag you know you are in trouble. Your ball has hit the bunker, the trap. Serious danger lies ahead.

There is imposing danger along the Turkish/Iraqi border.

Clearly our attempt to liberate Iraqis has brought about unforeseen consequences in the region. Deposing Saddam, in hindsight, was easy. That mission was accomplished quickly. The cost was minimal.

The greater cost, however, is wrought with uncertainty. The whole region has grown increasingly unstable.

The issue in Turkey involves its Kurdish minority. Kurdish rebels living in Iraq have used the instability in the region to launch insurgent attacks into Turkey. The Turkish government feels obligated to retaliate and defend its own soil.

Our Congress has added insult to injury by debating a resolution to punish the Turks for their apparent genocide of their Armenian population one hundred years ago. The Turkish government feels obligated to defend their reputation.

Our war with Iraq has drawn in the Iranians, the Syrians, the Saudis, the Jordanians, the Israelis and now the Turks. The whole region has become one giant sand trap.

Is it any wonder our foreign policy score has suffered?

In the future be careful of your club choice. Foreign policy is not beanbag.

VIDEO: Complicated Crisis In Turkey

Lessons, not water, from Katrina to burning California

They could really use lots of water -- and less wind to fight the raging wildfires in Southern California.

Hurricane Katrina has many legacies for the Bush White House, none pleasant. One is the guarantee that as soon as disaster strikes in the United States, President Bush's every move is closely scrutinized to gauge the speed and tone of his response.

On Tuesday, while he had no water saved, Bush declared a federal emergency and his administration said lessons were learned from Katrina. The President will be in Southern California today. Residents, hoping the wind will die down, no doubt hope the President brings more than "hot air" with him.

Linked is the AP's story on the lessons and the legacy Katrina has left on the federal government:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21453908/

The fires in Southern California give us that opportunity to assess just what exactly they have learned.

After Katrina, the Bush administration was criticized for its slow response. The fires in Southern California brought an immediate government response. Over 250,000 have already been evacuated. No hesitation this time.

After Katrina, the Bush administration was criticized for mishandling the role played by the federal and state agencies involved. FEMA was embarrassed in New Orleans. This time they appear to have been charged with delivering quick relief and they have. Today, intergovernmental cooperation appears to be smoother.

After Katrina, the Bush administration was criticized for not giving the personal attention expected when crisis hits. The Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the President, have offered the personal gestures now expected.

While fighting the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930s talked about the three Rs of government – relief, recovery and reform. As the wild fires rage this week all three Rs can be found on the ground in Southern California.

Maybe over time lessons can be learned.

____________________

Or maybe not. Linked here is the story of how the fires came after the State of California had declared the end of fire season, and laid off seasonal firefighters. This year the fire didn't get the message and the State was scrambling to call all available fire personel back.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21443093/

Congressional Terms though Schip evaluation

Several Ch. 11 terms are seen in practice in the SCHIP bill that was passed by Congress and vetoed by the President:

What is SCHIP?

CMS ( Center for Medicare & Medicade Services) Administers the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). Program benefits became available October 1, 1997 and will provide $24 billion in federal matching funds over 10 years to help states expand health care coverage to over 5 million of the nation's uninsured children.

The State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) is jointly financed by the Federal and State governments and is administered by the States. Within broad Federal guidelines, each State determines the design of its program, eligibility groups, benefit packages, payment levels for coverage, and administrative and operating procedures. SCHIP provides a capped amount of funds to States on a matching basis for Federal fiscal years (FY) 1998 through 2007. Federal payments under title XXI to States are based on State expenditures under approved plans effective on or after October 1, 1997.

http://www.cms.hhs.gov/NationalSCHIPPolicy/

This makes SCHIP Sunset Legislation or Provision -- In public policy, a sunset provision or sunset clause is a provision in a statute or regulation that terminates or repeals all or portions of the law after a specific date, unless further legislative action is taken to extend it. Not all laws have sunset clauses; in such cases, the law goes on indefinitely.

With the President vetoing the bill and Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi vowing not to back down, two other Congressional terms come to focus:

Compromise (or the need to)

To come to agreement by concession: hence, a compromise bill is secured by mutual concessions. Most legislators will agree that successful legislation is always the result of compromise, although in some floor speeches, members may pound their desks and vow never to compromise.

Divided Government

The condition that exists when the majority party in either or both houses of Congress differs from the party of the president is called divided government. The constitutional structure of the U.S. government, which separates the legislative and executive branches, sets differing terms of office for representatives, senators, and the president, and ensures that they will be chosen from different constituency bases, makes divided government possible.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6429.html

Public Law

All bills that complete the lawmaking process described in the Constitution and are signed into law or, if not signed by the president, have gone beyond the time in which the president can veto the measure. This includes bills and joint resolutions, but not concurrent resolutions or simple resolutions of the House and Senate, which do not become public law.

Actually, SCHIP is part of all of the following public laws:

Balanced Budget Act of 1997, Title XXI, Subtitle J, Section 4901, Public Law 105-33; Public Law 105-100 and Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Balanced Budget Refinement Act of 1999 Public Law 106-113, Section 702; Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP Benefits Improvement Act of 2000, Title VIII, Section 801, 802, and 803, Public Law 106-554, Public Law 108-74, Public Law 108-127 and Public Law 109-171.

You could add a few more terms, like Department of Health and Human Services and Veto Overide (2/3 majority vote of both houses in our bicameral Congress needed). It didn't happen last week in the House. The vote was 273-156, leaving Democrats 13 short of the two-thirds majority of 286 needed to override the third veto of the Bush presidency.

I fought the law.....

Many of you commented here how the Illinois now mandated moment for reflection is not practical -- how would it be enforced?

There are many more examples like this.

American law is underenforced—and we like it that way. Full enforcement of every last law on the books would put all of us in prison for crimes such as "injuring a mail bag." No enforcement of our laws, on the other hand, would mean anarchy. Somehow, officials must choose what laws really matter.

Why are there dead zones in U.S. law? The answer goes beyond the simple expense of enforcement but betrays a deeper, underlying logic. Tolerated lawbreaking is almost always a response to a political failure—the inability of our political institutions to adapt to social change or reach a rational compromise that reflects the interests of the nation and all concerned parties.

That's why the American statutes are full of laws that no one wants to see fully enforced—or even enforced at all...What's going on here is that the parties all know the law is being broken, accept it, and—while almost never overtly saying so—both the "criminals" and law enforcement concede that everyone likes it better that way.

The law in question thus continues to have a formal existence, and, as we shall see, it may become a kind of zoning ordinance, enforced only against very public or flagrant behavior...The importance of understanding why and when we will tolerate lawbreaking cannot be overstated.

Lawyers and journalists spend most of their time watching the president, Congress, and the courts as they make law. But tolerance of lawbreaking constitutes one of the nation's other major—yet most poorly understood—ways of creating social and legal policy.

Almost as much as the laws that we enact, the lawbreaking to which we shut our eyes reflects how tolerant U.S. society really is to individual or group difference. Slate.com has a four-part series on American Lawbreaking linked here:

http://www.slate.com/id/2175730/entry/2175733/

Does this affect the legitimacy of our representative government?

Special Interests line up their SCHIPs

Dara Wilkerson picks up her energetic daughter Bethany Wilkerson (in denim dress), 2, of St. Petersburg, on stage during a SEIU event rallying support for the SCHIP Veto overturn vote to take place this week. Bethany had a heart surgery that saved her life that SCHIP covered in addition to the long term treatment for her heart condition.

It’s been a bruising few months as special interests have spent millions of dollars and countless hours battling over how to fund children’s health care. And if the House votes as expected Thursday to uphold the president’s veto, insurance and tobacco companies will emerge victorious.

For now.

Slate.com reports on the tobacco companies' influence on lawmakers and the president who rejected the passed bill. Money is funding the message on both sides of the debate. The $35 billion bill would be funded in part by 61-cent tobacco tax hike. PACs, big business and individual grassroot interests are all getting into trying to influence lawmakers, as the story reports.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6397.html

Meanwhile, 2-year-old Bethany Wilkerson has been a star on the side pushing for passage of SCHIP. She stars in the Truemajority.org ad pushing for a overide of the president's veto, linked here:

http://www.truemajorityaction.org/

On the other side, "child swiftboating" -- it has been suggested in the blogosphrere that the parents of Brittany Wilkerson should not have had their child because they didn't have health insurance.

Now that's hardball.

Read and check out the stuff here, and think of how many influences there are on lawmaking. And refer to the quote often attributed to Otto Von Bismark, "Laws are like sausages, it is better not to see them being made."

Silent Game

The Silent Game is on in all Illinois public schools. But is it going to be played by the Rule of Law?

On Thursday, the Illinois House overrode Gov. Rod Blagojevich's veto of Senate Bill 1463, the Silent Reflection and Student Prayer Act. The Senate voted to override last week, meaning the bill becomes law without the governor's approval. The vote on the issue was 74-37, two more than the three-fifths majority needed to override the governor's veto.

State law already permitted schools to observe a period of silence. The new law simply changes the wording from "may" to "shall."

The new state law

"In each public school classroom the teacher in charge shall observe a brief period of silence with the participation of all the pupils therein assembled at the opening of every school day. This period shall not be conducted as a religious exercise but shall be an opportunity for silent prayer or for silent reflection on the anticipated activities of the day."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-legis12_weboct12,1,279509.story

From my Soap Box, it is interesting that the Legislature can get this done, and have it take action immediately, but they can't funding done for education or public transportation in Chicago...But I guess that's another couple of stories.

The issue here is does the new Illinois law pass constitutional muster?

Stare Decisis, "let the decision stand," is the practice of basing new rulings on previous Court precedent. It is this continuity and consistency, which has served our Court and its legitimacy for over two centuries. Deviating too far from precedent often is received with skepticism.

With the two clauses of our First Amendment Freedom of Religion freedom: free exercise and establishment in play, the precedent setting Supreme Court ruling would seem to be the 1985 case of Wallace v. Jaffree http://religiousfreedom.lib.virginia.edu/court/wall_v_jaff.html, in which the Court decided that an Alabama law requiring that each school day begin with a moment of “silent meditation or voluntary prayer” was unconstitutional.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 1962, in Engel v. Vitale, that official organization, sponsorship, or endorsement of school prayer is forbidden by the First Amendment to the United States Constitution. This is the was the first judicial review of the establishement clause public schools.

It is not uncommon for many laws to be practiced in this country even if they are possibly (or probably unconstitutional). They would have to be challenged and reviewed judicially. It is also probable (again from my soap box) that the Legislature -- especially in how it it deals (or doesn't) with education in Illinois (48th out of 50 in state funding), is out of touch.

This comment from a suburban kindergarten teacher:

"I am a kindergarten teacher in a suburban school district. I am with my students for 2.5 hours per day. Here is a list of some of the things (besides the usual curriculum of math, reading, science, and social studies) that I am mandated by the Illinois School Code to teach:

• Holocaust history
• Women's History
• African American History
• Christa McAuliffe Day
• Remembrance Day - Pearl Harbor
• Veterans Day
• Casimir Pulaski Day
• Columbus Day
• Vietnam Veterans Day
• Recycling Day
• Leif Erickson Day

... and the list goes on from here.

If my district even decides (by the state law, they would have no choice) on one minute of silence per day, this will be 180 minutes per year or three hours that I could be spending teaching my students how to read."

In silence or not, blog your constitutional analyisis on the new Illinois law.

Recalls show our government is really working

With the President and Congress both being "raked" in public opinion polls, often the bureaucracy is blamed. But yesterday, the Federal Food and Drug Administration cut through the red tape and took action.

Pediatricians and other medical experts say the removal of infant cough and cold medicines from store shelves comes not a moment too soon, and nearly all agree that any benefits of the drugs do not outweigh their risks.

Linked is ABC News story on the recall of the meds. http://www.abcnews.go.com/Health/Drugs/story?id=3718265&page=1

Recently, before the latest recall, the 2 Regular Guys posted about the benefit of government:

Performance ratings for our government are at historic lows.

According to a recent CBS poll, President Bush’s job approval rating has sunk below 30 percent. The marks for Congress are even lower.

Conservative talk show host Dennis Prager recently said, "More harm was done in the 20th century by faceless bureaucrats than tyrant dictators." Ouch.Can our government do anything right?

Look in your daily paper or listen to your nightly newscast and you just might RECALL . . .

Recently you may have noticed that numerous toys, cribs and other commonly used products have been recalled. This is your government at work. Bureaucracies like the Consumer Product Safety Commission have come to our rescue. Lives have been saved. Our government works.It was a hundred years ago that Upton Sinclair wrote his muckraking classic The Jungle (1906). In this novel, Sinclair tells the story of Lithuanian immigrants working in the Chicago stockyards. The horrendous working conditions and filthy practices of making sausauge were exposed.

President Teddy Roosevelt read the book and became sick to his stomache. This led to the Meat Inspection Act, the Pure Food and Drug Act and ultimately the Food and Drug Administration.

As we send back our toys, cribs and other household items let's be reminded that despite our mistrust of government these days, it is not all bad.The government has been charged with protecting us.

We hear a lot about what they are doing to secure our borders from terror. Many doubt even this responsibility. Many claim we are less safe today than we were before 9.11. Thankfully, as the news has reported recently, our stomaches are definitely safer.It would not hurt us to thank our government every now and then. It is something else worth recalling.

VIDEO: Recalls Show The Government At Work To Protect Us

Political Warrior: GOP front-runners draw line in the debate

Political Warrior: GOP front-runners draw line in the debate

GOP front-runners draw line in the debate

In government, the line-item veto is the power of an executive to nullify or "cancel" specific provisions of a bill, usually budget appropriations, without vetoing the entire legislative package. The line-item vetoes are usually subject to the possibility of legislative override as are traditional vetoes.

This power is held by many state governors in the United States of America. All but seven US states have some form of line-item veto.


The President of the United States was briefly granted this power by the Line Item Veto Act of 1996, passed by Congress in order to control "pork barrel spending" that favors a particular region rather than the nation as a whole. The line-item veto was used 11 times to strike 82 items from the federal budget by President Bill Clinton.

However, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas F. Hogan decided on February 12, 1998, that unilateral amendment or repeal of only parts of statutes violated the U.S. Constitution. This ruling was subsequently affirmed on June 25, 1998, by a 6-3 decision of the Supreme Court of the United States in the case Clinton v. City of New York.


(this quick history lesson courtsey of Wikipedia...ugh, but who knew that the Line Item Veto exchange would be the highlight of last night's GOP Presidential Debate focussing on the economy?)


In a further sign of how intense the race for the GOP presidential nomination is becoming, the two Republican front-runners attacked one another today on issues near and dear to Republican primary voters — taxes and spending.


Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani sparred or spending and the constitutionality of the line-item veto -- a power to line-out spending provisions that many governors have, but the U.S. presidency lost as unconstitutional in 1998.


"I don't think there's any tool more important than the line-item veto," Romney said when asked to contrast his record on taxes and spending with Giuliani's.

The line-item veto allows executives to veto individual items in spending bills without killing the entire bill. Many states give their governors line-item veto power, but the president does not have it — a federal judge ruled in 1998 that the Line Item Veto Act, one of the items in the Contract With America, was unconstitutional.

Romney noted that as mayor in 1997, Giuliani filed a lawsuit to challenge the constitutionality of the line-item veto, saying it improperly shifted congressional powers of taxation and appropriations to the executive branch. Giuliani said at the time he was worried his city's residents might be deprived of millions in health-care funding. Good footage of the exchange is linked here: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3689633&page=1


President Bush, as all presidents on both sides of the aisle have, has pushed for a re-instatement of the line-item veto. In fact, as the political cartoon above suggests, it can be argued that he as used the power in practice if not theory.


What do you think? In our system of checks & balances, should the president have the power line out certain provisions of Congressional spending bills?

Regular Guys: Playoff Political Baseball

The 2 Regular Guys at CBS2Chicago.com offer the following political lessons within the 2007 MLB playoffs. While my team -- but apparently not Hillary's -- already out, the lessons can be learned and applied to the media and this Championship season -- the 2008 campaign. The following is the 2 Regular Guys post of last week, plus an insightful short video analyzing Playoff Political Hardball:

America's pastime has grown into America's obsession. It may be baseball, but it certainly is politics. This time of year both baseball and politics intersect. While we watch the baseball playoffs let us be reminded of these important political lessons:

The Philadelphia Phillies remind us of female advances in politics. Hillary is the front-runner. Female ascendancy in the political arena is no longer big news. Also we are reminded that horse-race journalism characterizes the media coverage. We care most about who is winning the race and less about the issues at play.

The Cleveland Indians remind us of the importance of Ohio in Presidential elections. The 2008 election may come down to voters in this important rust-belt state. The campaigning there will be vigorous.

The Los Angeles Angels are back in the playoff hunt. So too is the importance of religion in politics. Evangelical leaders recently threatened to cast votes for a third party candidate with more conservative credentials. At the same time Hillary has made overtures to various religious leaders. Remember what Madison said, "If men were angels, we would not need government."

The Yankees and Red Sox are in the playoffs again. This should be no surprise. New Englanders and the East Coast establishment have always dominated our political debate. This political season will be no exception. In fact, the two leading candidates (Hillary & Rudy) are Yankees.

And what do the Cubs teach us about politics? In politics you cannot wait until next year.

VIDEO: Baseball Playoff Politics

Just tell me when I can vote on my cell phone or I-pod

Cyberspace, the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship [American] enterprise and her candidates. Its four-year term: to invade strange new worlds, to seek out new alternative energies, to boldly go where no woman has gone before.”

The candidacy of Hillary Clinton is not the only adventure story these days. Though she may be sitting in the captain’s chair as she heads into our quadrennial beauty pageant, modern campaigns have always been about more than the candidates. Modern campaigns have all introduced new technologies.

William Jennings Bryan brought the railroad into politics.

Franklin Roosevelt gave us the radio.

John F. Kennedy became a TV star.

Howard Dean found a new source of campaign money on the Internet.

John Edwards used Jon Stewart, and John McCain used David Letterman.

Don’t forget Barack Obama introducing himself on You Tube, and creating Barack TV. What could be next?

Look for the Hillary machine to exploit the emerging technologies. Watch for the Democrats as they invade your space on MySpace. Watch for the “I am [going to win]” on your IM. Look for less Pay Pal and more less costly e-mail. For digital natives this is all expected. For some of us digital immigrants it looks more like science fiction. Cool!

The following was prominently displayed at a recent Google shareholder meeting: “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.”It was written by Charles Darwin.

Applied to our politics it would appear the fittest, the survivor will be the one candidate who best figures out how to use the new technologies.For political animals, that is nothing new.

Linked is a site, http://www.techpresident.com/, that links technology use by the candidates.

Not surprisingly, Barack and Hillary lead the Democratic field, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tx.) leads the Republicans’ tech track. I never heard, of him. He’s 71!. I thought all MySpace users were like 17. I guess I better get on board.

(I posted this originally last year, but Barack still leads the Dems in both Facebook and MySpace friends. Ron Paul still leads for the Republicans, though his 67,000 MySpace friends is OMG, way behind BFF Barack -- 180,000 and counting.

The Audacity of Obama

Pictured above is Barack Obama visiting Iowa's Waukee High School last month. Why? There's a Students for Obama Club forming at Waubonsie. Does he like the W-A-U school cheers? What is the Senator from Illinois doing courting usually apathetic high school seniors and calling them "Barack Stars," in Iowa.

Newsweek reports this week that Obama's campaign is hoping to turn the Iowa Caucuses next January into a youth movement, even though last time, 18-34 year-olds made up just 10 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus goers (12,000). You might find interesting the "even bothered to show up line." (is it an unfair slam on youthful slackers?) The question raised is the Obama campaign really in trouble if it desparately needs the youth vote?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21192590/site/newsweek/

Or will the risky strategy pay off because Obama's message has a chance to connect with a yet fairly un-tapped voting bloc. Do not think that you guys (18-34) don't vote though. In the 2004 presidential race, more than 1 million voters in the demographic cast ballots -- it was a record. There are just more voters in upper-age demographics.

And more on Obama, and demographics. Is the flap over his flagless lapel potentially damming to older, more patriotic, age groups? Linked is last week's story from the Chicago Sun-Times. See if you can count the ratio of Obama's statement on why he doesn't wear the flag pin, and the spinners who talked about what he said. Remember, in 1960, there were 6 speeches for every 1"spinned" analysis piece. Now, that ratio is 1:6.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/589718,CST-NWS-obama05.article

Inconsistent ideological IDs

Chapter 7 in Patterson points out the inconsistency in Americans' political participation and their choice in candidates is critiqued in Chapter 6:

"Athough Americans claim that political participation is important, most do not practice what they preach..." And, "In the everyday world of politics, no source of opinion more clearly divides Americans than that of their partisanship....Some Republicans and Democrats know very little of their party's policies and unthinkingly embrace its candidates."

I thought of this when my neighboor, a two-time supporter of President Bush, sent me this "Candidate Match Game," from the USA Today. The survey said he was closest in his ideology to liberal Democrat Dennis Kucinich. I won't report for the record who the survey hooked me up with politically. But it does get to the Patterson point that "people often expess opinions at odds with the ideological label they attatch to themselves."

Check out the match game here: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/candidate-match-game.htm

Cub playoff an economic victory for City?

Friday night, as the Cubs clinched the National League Central division title, fans and revelers took to the streets in Wrigleyville to celebrate. It made me wonder, were business owners in the area dancing in the streets as well?

Major League Baseball, as a linkage organization to local governments, promote brand new stadiums and a possibility of bringing a World Series to a city as an economic opportunity. In fact today, the City of Chicago will be hosting a Cub Rally in Daley Center.

But is baseball -- even a World Series (though my team hasn't been a part since, "We dropped the Bomb on Japan" -- Steve Goodman) -- a cash champion? By the way, the same argument is made supporting the Olympic Games' economic impact on a city.

A study by Holy Cross University in 2005 says not so much:

Major League Baseball teams have used the lure of post-season riches as an incentive for
cities to construct new stadiums at considerable public expense. Estimates of the economic
impact of baseball playoffs including a trip to the World Series on host communities have
typically ranged from about $50 million up to $250 million. We in general would urge caution
with respect to these sorts of economic impact estimates.

Our detailed regression analysis reveals that over the period 1972 to 2000, cities appearing in the MLB post-season had higher than expected income growth by 0.003%. This is figure is not statistically significantly different than zero, although a best guess of the economic contribution of a single post-season game is $6.8 million, roughly half that of the typical ex ante projection.

For those of you into economics, yo can check out the study at: http://www.holycross.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/Matheson_WorldSeries.pdf

For the rest of you, you can sing with me, "Go Cubs Go, Go Cubs Go."