Friday night, as the Cubs clinched the National League Central division title, fans and revelers took to the streets in Wrigleyville to celebrate. It made me wonder, were business owners in the area dancing in the streets as well?
Major League Baseball, as a linkage organization to local governments, promote brand new stadiums and a possibility of bringing a World Series to a city as an economic opportunity. In fact today, the City of Chicago will be hosting a Cub Rally in Daley Center.
But is baseball -- even a World Series (though my team hasn't been a part since, "We dropped the Bomb on Japan" -- Steve Goodman) -- a cash champion? By the way, the same argument is made supporting the Olympic Games' economic impact on a city.
A study by Holy Cross University in 2005 says not so much:
Major League Baseball teams have used the lure of post-season riches as an incentive for
cities to construct new stadiums at considerable public expense. Estimates of the economic
impact of baseball playoffs including a trip to the World Series on host communities have
typically ranged from about $50 million up to $250 million. We in general would urge caution
with respect to these sorts of economic impact estimates.
Our detailed regression analysis reveals that over the period 1972 to 2000, cities appearing in the MLB post-season had higher than expected income growth by 0.003%. This is figure is not statistically significantly different than zero, although a best guess of the economic contribution of a single post-season game is $6.8 million, roughly half that of the typical ex ante projection.
For those of you into economics, yo can check out the study at: http://www.holycross.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/Matheson_WorldSeries.pdf
For the rest of you, you can sing with me, "Go Cubs Go, Go Cubs Go."
4 comments:
I guess it depends on which “business owners” we are talking about. Yes, I believe that a World Series at Wrigley Field may not mean much to the business community percentage wise, but if you compare how much they will get in the last two weeks of October compared to the same time frame for the last 99 years, it will be phenomenal. The business will be especially huge for the restaurants, bars, and parking lots (we had to pay $30 to park last time).
The other factor to consider is the lasting business effect on the neighborhood after a World Series. When the flag goes up that says “World Champion Chicago Cubs”, what kind of financial effect do you think it will have on business in 2008, 2009, and so on?
Finally, I guess there may be a few businesses in Wrigleyville that may be better off away from the ball park, but I think the majority of businesses there absolutely depend of the traffic Wrigley Field creates. After all, these people knew what they were getting into when they moved their business there.
"Hey, Chicago, what do you say? Cubs are gonna win today."
Overall, I do not believe that the Cubs winning the World Series will have a huge economic impact on the city. The Sox won two years ago and while the city was excited (or at least half of the city was excited), business and tourism were not booming. However, if the Olympics come to Chicago, then the city will see an economic victory. People will be coming from all over the world to see the games, and they may come early to see the sights or stay after the games. My dad runs a tour bus company and the city has come to him asking to contract all of his buses to shuttle people back and forth from events. Just imagine how the restaurants, shops, and tourist attractions will do! So, as much as I want the Cubs to win the World Series, I feel that the Olympics would be the great economic victory for our city.
Good to see your post quoting from "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request" by Steve Goodman. He often doesn't get his due. You might be interested in an eight-year project of mine that has come to fruition -- an 800-page biography of Goodman published in May, "Steve Goodman: Facing the Music." The book delves deeply into the origin of "Go, Cubs, Go" and the related song "A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request." Please check my Internet site below for more info on the book. Just trying to spread the word. Feel free to do the same!
Clay Eals
1728 California Ave. S.W. #301
Seattle, WA 98116-1958
(206) 935-7515
(206) 484-8008
ceals@comcast.net
http://www.clayeals.com
Kacy's point is one that is very valid. I mean I think that baseball, especially with the cubs, has become less about watching the actual game and more about the envioronment of the game itself--the drinking, the peanuts, the foam fingers. So even if the Cubs go to the world series, the majority of the people who go will already be regular fans who come regardless of whether the cubs are winning or losing...although there would be a large profit--this would not incite a severe economic boom.
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