Two articles in the Foreign Policy (2009) present the question for Tuesday: Are Russia and Mexico on the verge of becoming failed states?
Half the class will read the first article:
Reversal of Fortune
"Vladimir Putin’s social contract has been premised on an authoritarian state delivering rising incomes and resurgent power. But the economic crisis is unraveling all that. And what comes next in Russia might be even worse...
"Today’s Russia is not the Soviet Union, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is not Joseph Stalin. But just as historians view 1929 as the end of the revolutionary period of Soviet history, scholars will (and already do) define Putin’s rule as a restoration that followed a revolution. Restoration—of lost geopolitical influence, of Soviet symbols, of fear, of even Stalin’s reputation—has been the main narrative of the past decade. But as history shows, periods of restoration do not restore the old order; they create new threats. This is what Russia is today—a new, much more nationalistic and aggressive country that bears as much (or as little) resemblance to the Soviet Union as it does to the free and colorful, though poor and chaotic, Russia of the 1990s...
"Confidence in the rule of a wealthy, heavy-handed Russian state has been shaken, and it is now a real possibility that the global economic crisis, as it persists and even intensifies, could cause Putin’s social contract to unravel. What is not clear, however, is what would take its place—and whether it would be any improvement. The nationalist passions and paranoia that Putin has stirred up have poisoned Russian society in lasting ways. Now, 2009 could be a new “Great Break” [1929] for Russia, but the result might just be a country in upheaval—broken..."
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Half will read the second:
State of War
"Mexico’s hillbilly drug smugglers have morphed into a raging insurgency. Violence claimed more lives there last year alone than all the Americans killed in the war in Iraq. And there’s no end in sight...
"Mexico’s surge in gang violence has been accompanied by a similar spike in kidnapping...
"All of this is taking a toll on Mexicans who had been insulated from the country’s drug violence. Elites are retreating to bunkered lives behind video cameras and security gates. Others are fleeing for places like San Antonio and McAllen, Texas...
"Mexico’s gangs had the means and motive to create upheaval, and in Mexico’s failure to reform into a modern state, especially at local levels, the cartels found their opportunity. Mexico has traditionally starved its cities. They have weak taxing power. Their mayors can’t be reelected. Constant turnover breeds incompetence, improvisation, and corruption. Local cops are poorly paid, trained, and equipped...
"In addition to fighting each other, the cartels are now increasingly fighting the Mexican state as well, and the killing shows no sign of slowing. The Mexican Army is outgunned, even with U.S. support..."
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On Tuesday, get into groups to explain to their classmates what they've read. Defend or contradict the failed state prognosis. Ask them to come to some agreements.
Failed States Index 2011
19 comments:
I agree with the prognosis that Mexico is a failed state. Its government has little control over what happens in the country and is unable to combat the fighting. Though there are laws in place, enforcement is weak because cities have little power (especially taxing) and because of this police are easily corrupted. The drug cartels are much better armed and prepared to fight than the police. Even President Calderon's attempt to regain control by fighting the cartels with the military has not been successful in creating stability or truly solving the problem. It's just resulted in lots of death. Like the article says, until a stronger, better funded police force that will be able to properly deal with the cartels is established, cities will continue to be led by corrupt officials and fights between drug cartels, and the country will continue to be in chaos.
I wouldn't consider Russia as a failed state while human rights, voting results and the media freedoms have been put into question. Hauss defines a failed state as a government losing the ability to run the functions of an effective state. the government still has legitimacy and a social contract between citizens with the constitution established under Yeltsin in the 1990s. Also, while Putin's United Russia party claims the majority of seats in the state Duma, there is opposition in the Duma as the communist party, and A Just Russia have elected members in the state Duma.Also while economic growth has slowed, new industries and business have been able to expand in Russia's major ciites.
I think Russia has the definite potential to become a failed state soon. The large social cleavage between the few wealthy Russians and the rest of the country has created a lot of resentment. With the recent economic decline and the legitimacy of the elections being called into question, the unrest within the country is coming to the forefront and at this point it would take some very drastic changes to prevent the trajectory towards a failed state.
I think Russia is very far away from becoming a failed state or even being a failed state. There is an effective leader that many do endorse. There is a strong (general) trust in the institution of government, at least only a small minority want to overthrough it. Russia is actually frequently compared to in world politics and economics. Heck, they even have a great Olympics team every two years.
When I see states like Libya or Egypt falling apart, that is when I think failed state.
A rough economic patch that widens the gap between rich and poor though, that is nothing to make Russia worry about becoming a failure. Is it ideal? No. Is it survive-able? Yes. Russia may not be the big gun it used to be, but it is not far from it.
What is a failed state? A simple way of describing a failed state is a state that has quite literally fallen apart. Failed states are most noticeably characterized by illegal decentralization of power (as opposed to legal decentralization, which occurs in federal or canton systems). In a working state, the state itself retains a de facto and de jure monopoly on the use of force over its territory. In a failed state, this remains de jure, but most definitely not de facto. Take Somalia, for example, which is a mishmash of different groups, all with their own armies and territories: there central government in Mogadishu and its African Union backers, which is legally recognized as “Somalia” but has no power over the rest of the nation, there is the relatively stable secessionist government of Somaliland in the North, the autonomous region of Puntland right underneath it, and further south it is a veritable hodgepodge of various warlords and armies, some of them “loyal” to Mogadishu, some loyal to the Al-Shabaab Islamists, some acting on their own. And last but not least are the invading armies of Ethiopia and Kenya, who seek to stamp out the aforementioned Islamists. Beyond political and military decentralization, failed states have non-existent legitimate economies – leading to the prevalence of piracy in Somalia, for example – massive refugee and public health issues, a complete loss of legitimacy, law and order, and various other factors that turn a state into a war zone.
So the question is posed: is Russia a failed state? The answer is clear: no. Russia is very far from being failed. The last time Russia could be considered a failed state would be in the late 1910s, during the midst of the Russian Civil War, which like modern Somalia, featured many factions: the Communists and their power base in the cities, the reactionary White Armies, the Czechoslovak Legion, the anarchist Black Armies, etc. This conflict was brought to an end by the victorious communists, who established a thoroughly totalitarian state. Putin’s Russia of 2012 is not too different. Communism is no longer the ideology, but the authoritarian nature of the government remains the same, though more limited than it was in the heyday of Beria, Molotov, and Stalin. And unlike Mogadishu, Moscow’s authoritarian infrastructure is clearly capable of extending power over the rest of the nation that it commands. Yes, Russia is in economic bedlam at the moment, but comparing it to a failed state is like comparing a sprained leg to dysentery. Putin’s government is faced by protests, but middle class protests in rich areas is nowhere near the threat of armed warlords and foreign invasion, the threats that are posed to the governments of actual failed states. As a whole, Russians are more prosperous and more safe than the citizens of any failed state, and even the citizens of rising stalwarts of the third world such as India or Indonesia. Russia is constantly judged against its vastly more prosperous neighbors, the social capitalist states of Europe, and against its Cold War foe, America, all of which makes Russia seem old and decrepit. But when judged against failed states such as Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, or Haiti, Russia is a veritable paradise.
I had no idea that the gangs had gotten this bad, it seems to me that they should almost be considered terrorists and not just drug and gang criminals. Additionally, Calderon's war on drugs is great but he should start by addressing the problem instead of dealing with symptoms. Funding for local authorities should be increased in order to get the gangs under control. They should also help finance their war on drugs with the weapons and real estate that they confiscate from the gangs.
Calderon might also extend the amount of time local leaders can hold office in order to create some consistancy and a more stable and united local government that would have a chance to take down the narcogangs. Although Calderon is off to an ok start he should start considering how Mexico got this bad in the first place so that fundamental changes can be implemented to prevent further problems from arising.
Although Putin's rule has been called the resurgence period of Russia, Ostrovsky was very intelligent when he stated that the goal Russia is working towards is not going to reestablish the old Russian state yet instead a new version of the glory. This statement is very true since Russia is significantly more involved in the world today than it was in 1929. When the Great Depression plagued the world, Russia was forced to rapidly industrialize under Stalin as they negated a majority of its affects, but today Russia participates in the oil and coffee trade worldwide. Although, as previously discussed in class, Russia is still viewed as a shadow of its former Soviet glory, under Putin I believe they have the potential and resources to step out of Stalin's shadow and become a new kind of world power (and is certainly not a failed state).
The article on Russia may be outdated, but it still is reflective of how fragile Russia's economy is. The financial crisis of 2008 severely hurt Russia. I feel that this has a lot to do with the fact that Russia still heavily depends on raw resources like oil for the success of its economy.
What I find interesting is that Russia believed they could be the financial standard of the world. Though Russia has had their struggles on the global scale, they always seem to be extremely confident. Putins mirroring of Stalin was also interesting, if not a little strange.
I don't really know if I could say that Russia is a failed state. I mean a lot of countries are currently suffering economically. There are a lot if problems with all of the riots and the governments methods of putting them down. But I think that spreads more from their entire economy being based off the natural resources which have recently taken a price hit. I mean they don't look good but I can't say its failed for sure.
Unlike Greece or Libya, I don't consider Russia to be a failed state. Their government is in a nice, stable position for the next twelve or so years with Putin at the healm. Yes, there is a small percentage of Moscow citizens mostly who agree with his policies but other Russian citizens see him as the working class savior.
Although Russia is beginning to fail economically, I do not believe that it is a failed state. The government still has control over the citizens and still has legitimacy. The people of Russia still have hope in their government (unlike the US' 9% Congress approval rating)and still believe that their government has their beliefs at heart.
I wouldn't say that Mexico is a failed state yet, but it's very close to being one. The fact that the government has little to zero control over the drug gangs is more than a little troubling. As stated in the article, these drug gangs will soon turn their attention to attacking the government and potentially cause widespread corruption and fear.
I think Mexico is a failed state because it has become overwhelmed by so many problems. Despite some economic improvement, poverty persists, the economic system is weak, but most importantly, the government does not have the power it needs to properly manage the country. According to the article, they cannot provide their people with security and stability because they lack the authority and resources to do this. A country so unstable with no signs of improvement should be considered a failed state.
I think Russia is far from becoming a failed state. Many people support Putin and a failed state would have a leader that many people do not trust. As the article says getting admiration at home has been a huge concern of Putin and a failed state's leader would not attempt to gain this admiration.
By any definition, Mexico is a failed state. It's not just the brazen nature of the drug violence within the country that indicates this; the response by the Mexican government, as well as the rate at which the violence and power of the cartels have increased are alarming indicators. The author portrayed this escalation well; in comparing his last decade in Mexico to his return just four years later, Quinones highlights the intensity of the conflict and the power of the cartels. Now, when just four years before little was said about the drug war, violence is widespread and public, and cartels are so bold as to advertise their messages openly. In one respect, that's an unfortunate consequence of an unfortunate response on the part of the Calderon administration and the Mexican authorities. The weak-willed measures in place are clearly not enough, as police and local government officials are too easily bribed and corrupted to make any of Calderon's policies effective. All told, Mexico is in turmoil, and this, coupled with the breakdown in government efficiency and absolute lack of effectiveness clearly brands Mexico as a failed state.
While I do not believe that Russia is a failed state or even close by most definitions it is not hard for me to envision a failed Russian state.
From what we learned Russia is heavily dependent on natural resources. If in some scenario Russia's market were to falter or switch directions the consequences could be significant. A Russian economy that loses trading connections on the global marketplace, switches directions towards greater industrialization or faces a significantly smaller demand for their exports would potentially lose a great source of their legitimacy, the support of the lower class.
I believe that if the lower class is made to suffer due to economics and they believe Putin to blame there is a chance of great political change that could fail the Russian state.
While I do not believe that Russia is a failed state or even close by most definitions it is not hard for me to envision a failed Russian state.
From what we learned Russia is heavily dependent on natural resources. If in some scenario Russia's market were to falter or switch directions the consequences could be significant. A Russian economy that loses trading connections on the global marketplace, switches directions towards greater industrialization or faces a significantly smaller demand for their exports would potentially lose a great source of their legitimacy, the support of the lower class.
I believe that if the lower class is made to suffer due to economics and they believe Putin to blame there is a chance of great political change that could fail the Russian state.
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